What keeps an Indian liberal awake at night?

The biggest, nay the only, thing that keeps the Indian ‘liberals’ awake at night is the complete lack of political opposition to the juggernaut that is Narendra Modi. Not only does it lack leaders to spearhead a campaign against Narendra Modi, they do not even seem to have issues to highlight. Deft handling of both, governance and politics, by Narendra Modi and Amit Shah has all but annihilated NDA’s political opposition.

Think about it this way. Narendra Modi became the NDA’s Prime Ministerial candidate in September 2013 or thereabouts. But he had first come into the nation’s gaze due to the attention showered upon him by the mainstream media during the post Godhra incidents. This was in 2002. Even Modi’s harshest critics will agree that, at the very least, here is a man of extraordinary political acumen and intelligence. His ability to sway a crowd, whether in India or abroad, of masses or classes, in person or over a social media platform, is unparalleled in recent history. 

It took someone of this stature and intelligence over a decade to become a serious contender for the Prime Ministerial office. Now look at the opposition’s ranks today and try to identify who they have today that is of the stature of Narendra Modi in 2002. The Bookkeeper sees absolutely no one. As such, I am unsure if UPA has a PM candidate for 2024 even, much less 2019! One of the key reasons for this vacuum one surmises  is that UPA was hamstrung by having to project only one family as the panacea for all the ills of the country. They spent time, inventing, reinventing and re-reinventing ad nauseam a candidate who is quite frankly unelectable to the august office to which he aspires. No one else was developed or identified as a ‘plan B’.

But elections will be held and candidates will need to be put up. The question then is how the UPA will strategize in this situation. For this, The Bookkeeper makes one assumption about the UPA’s stand on 2019. The Bookkeeper believes that UPA has accepted that it is going to lose. Now they need to work around it. 

The Bookkeeper does not think that Rahul Gandhi will offer himself up as the general of a losing army. This would completely take him out of any post poll power equations. The myth of Priyanka Gandhi has also been busted in the minds of many. These are no longer the times when mere resemblance to a past PM will carry anyone through to the PM’s office. As such The Bookkeeper has ruled the siblings out.

Readers can themselves figure out why old stalwarts like Sharad Pawar, Mulayam Singh, Laloo Yadav, Akhilesh Yadav, Kharge, Kejriwal etc are also not in contention of the post of PM. The Bookkeeper will then not belabor himself.

The two pieces on the political chess board that mildly interest The Bookkeeper are Captain Amarinder Singh and Nitish Kumar. Nitish Kumar has had a blow hot – blow cold situation with the NDA and Laloo for the past few months. The Bookkeeper believes that politically, the correct move for Nitish would be to consolidate his position in Bihar and replace Laloo. Going head to head with Narendra Modi is not his priority. He may be seeing himself as more of backroom boy who will step in after the polls perhaps. But he is in no hurry whatsoever. He has time to wait, and wait he will. Thus The Bookkeeper believes that Nitish will not accept to become UPA’s PM candidate for 2019.

Captain Amarinder Singh is someone The Bookkeeper has come to respect among the current crop of his alternatives in Congress. As one of the few people in Congress who can win polls, I am sure he has immense clout within the Party. This makes him a serious contender to become UPA’s PM candidate. His biggest strength is his demand from both sides of the aisle which gives him strong bargaining power. Captain saab has not a lot to lose. If UPA loses badly, his position in Punjab will not be impacted. In his position, I would have been happy to become the Leader of Opposition as well and raise my national stature. In fact, The Bookkeeper would prefer having someone like him as LOP rather than the current crop. If Captain takes over the reins in 2019, it will thus to expand his hold in Congress, rather than Congress’ hold in India.

But I’m afraid, he too will be disappointed.

Assuming that the Opposition has given up on 2019, I believe they will use the opportunity to create a fertile ground for 2024. Lacking issues and personalities, the thrust of the Party will be to create narratives that can help launch a personality in time for 2024. 

What are the conditions that the narrative must satisfy for it to be chosen by liberals to vanguard their revival? First of all, it should have global appeal. It is easier for donation dollars to flow in that way. The second thing, it has to be a massively emotive issue. The sort of you cannot argue against even logically without looking like some sort of a bigot. They will smother you with political correctness. Thirdly, the issue must be one where the new ‘leader’ of the opposition must squarely fit into.

There are three main issues that The Bookeeper identifies:

1) Caste divide

2) Language divide

3) Women’s rights

The Bookkeeper believes that the liberal establishment will proceed on all three paths above at the same time and then based on whichever gains traction, decide their candidate. 

Narendra Modi has effectively cut off the “caste divide” angle by making Shri Kovind as the Presidential candidate (deservedly so). An astute choice of a Vice Presidential candidate has ensured that there is not North-South divide either. 

The ‘Language divide’ can also be tackled through negotiations. Honestly, apart from a couple of states it really isn’t a big issue for anyone else. There will be sporadic shop-board blackenings, a few book burnings etc., but apart from these, the BookKeeper doesn’t see this becoming the next vote bank.

While both above are viable narratives for the Left, the Bookkeeper believes that the third one, Women’s Rights, will be the sharpest arrow in the Left’s quiver. Expect a massive increase in news coverage of crimes (real and made up) against women. There will be sustained efforts to show that women are unsafe in India. In fact some basic spade work has already started months back. Why, even Indian’s refer to Delhi as the rape capital of the world. There will be a massive push, burkha marches, slut walks, etc for women’s rights in India as 2019 polls approach. Demand for more and more laws will be made, marriage as an institution will be severely targeted. In fact it would be the ideal platform for the Left if they can pitch a disgruntled Woman leader against Narendra Modi, who has a fairly ‘macho’ image.

Development will no longer be an issue. It will be a ‘men vs. women’ mandate in 2019 and afterwards. The Left has no choice but to do this. It is up to the Indian electorate to be vigilant and observe the strategy pursued by the Left. Within the BJP, it would be incumbent upon the powerful lady leaders and supporters to thwart any attempts at creating this parallel narrative by the Left. This is a narrative that simply cannot be countered by Men.  

The base case for this massive churn remains it happening in 2024. But it is tough to predict how a headless chicken driven to desperation will behave.

Will I get into Harvard?

This was a question from a friend of mine whom I've known since my college days. She's one year my junior and currently a successful analyst in an investment firm. She wanted to go for an executive management programme at the Harvard University and had applied for the same. The question asked is in the title and the chart and significators are below:

In essence this question is "will I get admission to a school of my choice". A question that I had examined earlier and it had caused me a sleepless night! So with some trepidation I proceeded to study this chart.

Moon signifies 2 4 9, which are houses connected with education and as such the question is adequately represented in the chart.

The ongoing DBA, within which the result was expected was Mo-Me-Ve.

Mo has 2 4 9, all positive houses, but not super positive as '11' is not present. Also, no negative houses are present and that is a relief.

Me is markedly positive it has 5 9 10 11 (5 11 is wisdom, 9 11 is higher education, 10 11 is gain of reputation). There is a solitary '8' that may cause some problems, but it cannot derail the admission.

Ve has the full education combination of 2 4 5 9 11, it also has 10. This is an extremely positive planet for the selection.

See how beautifully the DBA has lined up. Moon signifies travel. Mercury signified education and Venus signifies beauty, or rather ornamental nature, which in this case Harvard is. Same education can be obtained elsewhere, but 'Harvard' adds an ornament or decoration to a person.

Other planets are also positive for education. It must also be noted that while Moon is not a super positive (as mentioned earlier), I considered it to be strong enough, because this is an executive program, where the ability of the person to pay fees is primary and not some competitive examination like CAT or JEE. If there was a competitive examination then I doubt the houses signified by the Moon would have been enough to let this candidate through.

Anyway, so my answer was that you will get into Harvard. And I was right. The person called me a week after saying "I got in".

The '8' played an interesting role as the person was not offered a course of her choice. Instead they offered her a lower course. There were a lot of discussions and finally they agreed to let her take the original course and upgraded her. So the '8' caused some arguments, some delay, a little disappointment, but the ultimate result was positive.

Readers who have seen my exasperation when analysing a similar question earlier will remember the rule I had finally looked at to arrive at the right answer:

"If we have to see chosen school then another rule needs to be applied which is: 4th CSL and 11th CSL must be direct planets, posited in direct stars AND both should be posited in Sthira (fixed) signs"

In this case, 4th CSL is Rahu. Rahu signifies both 4 and 11. Rahu is posited in Ketu.  Retrograde rules do not apply to nodes as they are almost always retrograde. Rahu is posited in Leo, which is a fixed sign.

11th CSL is Venus. Venus is direct. It is posited in the star of Moon. Sun and Moon are never retrograde. Venus is in its own sign of Taurus. Taurus is a fixed sign. Venus signifies 4th house of education.

As such even the rule of Shahasane is satisfied and supported my belief that ultimate result of the question would be positive.

Chinese belligerence belies internal rumblings

Over the past month, The Bookkeeper's Whatsapp feed as also his twitter feed has been inundated with news of an Indo-Chinese military standoff at the Doklam Pass in Bhutan. The Bookkeeper is loathe to describe the issue again as there is no dearth online of material on it. What strikes The Bookkeeper as interesting is the news that local Chinese media is increasingly playing up the issue, threatening India, warning to open new fronts and even reminding India repeatedly of their military victories against the Jawaharlal Nehru government. 

The one thing that I would like to stress it that this theater is one where India has an undisputed advantage in military terms. In fact China would require a 10:1 superiority over the Indian army to make even a dent here, and both parties to the conflict know this. The strategic importance of this piece of land is such that some experts opine that India would even risk a full blown conflict to protect its interests there. The visit of the top command of Indian armed forces, the recent financial carte blanche given to the army to handle short skirmishes also send across the message that India is serious about defending this area.

It is in this context that the belligerence displayed by Chinese media regarding this stand off is extremely interesting, more than the stand-off itself. While conventional analysts have focused on the relative military might, the strategic importance of the region etc, the political fallout in China is something that has not been covered at all.

To understand the 'politics' of the issue it is important to take a brief look at Xi Jinping, the current 'paramount' leader of China. Xi was elected to the post of The General Secretary of the Communist Party and the Chairmanship of the Central Military Commission in November 2012. In his inaugural speech he made special mention of corruption and the need to weed it out.Thus in 2012 he started a 'campaign against corruption" with a stated goal of targeting "tigers and flies" (meaning he would target both high officials and low level functionaries). The Bookkeeper has read of over 100,000 officials being indicted for corruption, including 120 high ranking officials across military, political spectrum and leaders of State Owned Enterprises. 

The biggest move in this campaign has been Xi's breaking of the unwritten rule of not investigating any present or former members of the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC). Stories of Bo Xilai and Ling Jihua are well known, but the campaign has not even spared General Xu Caihou, a former politburo member. Xu was also the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, the highest position that can be occupied by a military officer in China. However, the biggest 'fish' has been Zhou Yongkang who is a former PSC member and national security chief. Zhou was convicted in June 2015 and has been sentenced to life in prison. 

The Bookkeeper cannot speculate as to the intention of such a bold move on part of Xi. Was it out of noble interests or was it a 'great purge' disguised as an anti corruption drive to remove all opposition and meddling from others. Whatever the reason, the fact remains that Xi is now described by some as the most powerful leader in China since Deng Xiaoping. The number of seats in the politburo have been reduced to 7 from 9 and decision making has become increasingly centralized in the hands of Xi. There are internet restrictions and 'defamatory' articles can be taken down and people who share them can even be arrested with a jail term for up to three years.

Without meandering over the morality or otherwise of these actions (it is never wise to use morality to analyse politicians anyway), The Bookkeeper does not find it hard to imagine that these actions can create enemies if Xi within the Chinese polity. 

Now coming back to the Chinese media's belligerent coverage of a conflict it is likely to lose. The Bookkeeper sees this as a tactic by Xi Jingping's political contemporaries to weaken his position and perhaps even seize power. Perhaps by exerting influence on newspapers to continually 'threaten' India about things they know Xi simply cannot do, they are hoping Xi will lose face. This can also be inferred by the difference in the intensity of coverage of the border issue in Indian and Chinese media. Indian media is hardly reporting it! If China indeed wanted India to back down, The Bookkeeper can imagine several publications in India that are friendly to China that it could have used to forward scary stories. 

China is like a bully child. They first lay claim to something and then if the other side does not object, it will keep pushing for more till a bigger bully stands up to them. Like in this case, they tried to expand militarily in an area they know they have no right to. India stood up and now they have to back down. Anyone who has even a passing friendship with Chinese knows how important the concept of "saving face" is to them. The Bookkeeper believes it is socially acceptable even to lie if the reason was to "save face". People will 'understand'. 

The accepted tactic was that the PLA would carry out some exercises at the border and then slowly withdraw after testing its limit with the Indian army. However, the coverage in their local media has made it impossible for the army to back down. They cannot back down, and they cannot fight. This has put the head of the armed forces, President Xi Jinping, in a very difficult position. He is now unable to "save face". And if he loses face, he will be left with no option but to resign. In the interim he has no option but to leave his army at the border and wait for winter which will give him a face saving excuse to bring the PLA back to barracks, 

So, while two armies stand-off at the border, the real bullets are flying in Beijing. The Bookkeeper sees political machinations intensifying after the winter sets in. I will not be surprised to see several heads roll as those who fed material to the local papers are identified.