Total Pageviews

Saturday 21 May 2016

#PoliticsPost BJP v. Regional Parties: A War Underway

Sitaron se aage jahan aur bhi hain,
Abhi ishq ke imtehan aur bhi hain,
Tahi zindagi se nahin ye fizayen,
Yahan saikdon karwaan aur bhi hain
-Iqbal

First of all big congratulations to the BJP are in order for a stupendous performance in the states. Apart from winning 60 seats in Assam (86 for the NDA), and ‘opening its account’ in Kerala, BJP has managed impressive gains in vote share in most of the major states that polled.




It is said that Alexander the Great cried when he heard his astronomer Anaxarchus talk about infinite number of worlds in the Universe. One of his friends asked him what was the matter, and Alexander replied, “There are so many worlds, and I have not yet conquered even one”. The Bookkeeper believes that Narendra Modi is that Alexander whose true battle has only just begun. And the adversary in this one is the force of regional parties.

With BJP’s Congress-mukt Bharat plan proceeding as intended (Congress now reportedly controls only ~6% of India’s population), it is time for BJP’s strategists to turn their attention to the increasing threat from what are known as regional or state parties, that are growing at a rapid clip. Regional parties are generally state based and usually woven around a narrative of either Identity politics (DMK, MNS, NCP, MIM etc), or leadership legacy (AIADMK, Biju Janata Dal, Shiv Sena, RJD etc) or a quasi-regional equation (JDU, NC, PDP, TRS etc).



It is beyond doubt that regional parties have come to enjoy considerable clout in national politics. As per some reports, regional or state parties now account for over 50% of the votes polled. Currently, these parties run governments in ten states (eleven, if the JDU/Congress-run Bihar is counted), and control over 42% of India’s population. 


Compare this with the 36% population controlled by the BJP and 6-7% controlled by the Congress. Notably, the states controlled exclusively by regional players, send 230 seats to the Lok Sabha (270 if Bihar is included) which accounts for nearly half of the total Lok Sabha seats.


Another way to gauge the impact of participation of regional parties in electoral politics it the sharp decline in 'margin of victory' (sourced from a report done by the Carnegie Endowment). Margin of victory being the vote share difference between the winner and the runner-up. Margin of victory dropped from about 26% in 1977 to 9.7% in 2009. 1977 was considered a wave election when Congress lost power. If the Bookkeeper recalls correctly, the Congress lost nearly 200 seats and even Mrs. Indira Gandhi and her son Sanjay Gandhi lost their seats. It must be noted that 2014 is also considered a wave election (Modi wave) and Congress' losses have been even more dire. In absolute numbers, Congress lost about 160 seats and reached its lowest ever tally of 44. Its vote share dropped to just 19%, even in 1977 it had managed to retain 27% of the vote. Despite this comprehensive defeat of the main opposition party, that the average margin of victory could recover only to 15% is testament to impact of regional players.





It is clear to the Bookkeeper that the Congress is a spent force at this time, and the only credible threat the BJP faces is from these regional forces. It is the Bookkeeper’s view that the primary target of a regional player is the main national party of the time. This can be demonstrated in the case of Congress which up until 2010-12 was the main national party and was thus their target. The table below taken from a paper by S.Kumar of CSDS will make this clear:




Looking at the five general elections since 1996, we see that the primary national party at that time (Congress) faced more erosion in its vote base in states where it competed with a local party, than in states where BJP was its primary opposition.

On an all India basis, in 1996 Congress had a vote share of 33.8% in BJP states* and 26.7% in local party states**. In 2009 their vote share in BJP states had actually gone up by nearly six percentage points but lost 3-4% of their vote shares where regional parties were the main opposition.

* states where BJP is the primary opposition; ** states were local/ regional/ state party is the opposition

The parochial nature of regional parties is underlined when one looks at caste electoral data. Among the Dalit votes Congress managed to hold its own against the BJP, even increasing its vote share by 2 percentage points between 1996 and 2009. But when competing with regional parties, its share of Dalit votes dropped from 31% to 23%. In fact, the only vote bank that the Congress had managed to defend successfully was the Muslim one. However, the Bookkeeper believes that this too will be under threat with religion-based parties like MIM making a national thrust. It can even be argued that the regional parties are at least as much responsible, as Narendra Modi, for the current state of the Congress.
This is not a battle that will be waged sometime in the future, but is being waged currently. It is not lost upon even the most casual observer of Indian politics that since the Modi wave of 2013-2014, the only major elections lost by the BJP are against regional players and the ones that have been won have been those against the Congress. This follows the pattern the table above revealed, i.e. the primary national party is more at threat from a regional force rather than from another national party. 


While perhaps it is only academic to describe the genesis of regional politics, it may be worthwhile to understand the reasons for its rapid growth. The biggest advantage that these parties have is that they have a very limited and well identified voter base they cater to. As such their vote gain policy is very clear, appease the one or two sections of the population they target, and win big. The second advantage that a regional party will have is a grassroots connect. Since it is a local party, it has usually risen ground-up and is able to retain a better connect with the people than the national parties and is more responsive to daily hurdles of a common man. I do not remember the last time the BJP MP from my area visited it again after victory to find out how things are progressing, or not progressing.

What makes the growth of regional parties worrying however is that they have the political convenience of being completely parochial. They do not have to think about things like the ‘big picture’ or ‘foreign policy’ when making their speeches or promises in their manifestos. So while a DMK can carry out a virulent anti-brahmin campaign, or an NCP can bat almost exclusively for ‘Marathas’, a BJP cannot (and should not) do so. Not just because of its ideology, but also because it would not be politically expedient on a national level. Also, without the worry of managing the country’s finances as a whole, regional parties are capable of being fiscally irresponsible. For example, Tamil Nadu was recently referred to as the ‘freebie capital of India’ in a March 2016 Financial Express article. That government apparently spends a staggering 56% of its own revenues on subsidies and freebies as per the same article. 

A study done by the Public Policy Research Centre in 2014 looked at a slew of performance indicators for states run by BJP, Congress, Regional Parties and the Left. The Bookkeeper appends only an illustrative snapshot below of some of the data, to allow the reader to judge the intent and performance of regional players:



It is evident that states run by regional parties are unable to provide infrastructure or curb corruption to the levels of even Congress. In terms of subsidies however, these governments are at levels nearly twice that of the BJP. 

Even considering electoral politics, handling the threat of regional parties is key to sustain BJP’s position. Consider the table below:



In 2014, BJP won a total of 282 seats, a majority on its own. But looking at it closely one can see that from the six states that send 164 seats to the Lok Sabha, BJP won a measly 7 seats. A win ratio of only about 4%. So in effect, BJP won its balance 275 seats from just 379 seats, a win ratio of 73%. The Bookkeeper believes that while the Modi wave helped BJP in achieving this, it is also true the BJP has milked whatever performance it could from these seats. E.g. BJP won 70 out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, can such a performance be repeated?! By the time 2019 rolls around there will be seat loss due to incumbency and other factors. Unless BJP is able to compensate for this seat loss through the six states mentioned above, it will be difficult for Narendra Modi to continue to operate effectively, if at all. BJP should target to win at least 60 seats from this untapped 164.

It is the endeavour of the Bookkeeper to highlight to the BJP, the devastating impact a regional force can have on a national level player. BJP here has a great opportunity to learn from the missteps on the Congress to avoid a similar outcome. The Bookkeeper sees three main avenues for BJP to pursue to avoid the fate of the Congress:

1) Improve grass-roots connect of your leaders. Encourage every MLA and MP to hold Jan Sabhas to remain in touch with the people, not just your party workers. Encourage party workers to help people with daily things of need, a lost passport, an electricity bill that seems incorrect, school admissions, problems of eve-teasing, etc. This help should be offered in a structured and not a proprietary manner, so people know how to approach you for help. Right now, I believe that regional parties are doing this much better than the BJP.

2) Create state level leadership. What BJP sorely lacks in many states today, is a strong state leader. In places where BJP competed without a strong face, i.e. Delhi and Bihar, the results are for all to see. In Assam the BJP was blessed with two well-known faces, Sarabnanda  and Himanta Biswas, which allowed the workers a focal point to rally around. It should be BJP’s endeavour to ensure that at the next hustings, Nitish Kumar, Jayalalitha, Mulayam Singh and other regional satraps are competing with a well regarded local face rather than the Prime Minister himself. The BJP managed this with Devendra Fadnavis in Maharashtra, and should do the same in other states. 

3) Stop depending on regional allies. Regional allies are independent parties who have their own survival and growth to think about. The Bookkeeper had alluded to this point in an earlier post and wishes to reassert the same again. Regional parties are seeing this trend of national parties being challenged by them. The ‘third front’ has now become the primary opposition in many ways and it is only a matter of time and opportunity when some of these players band together and make a play for the Prime Minister’s office.  Whether they can last together is a story for another time, but in the meanwhile BJP should aggressively push into states on the base of its own cadre. Whether it is Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Andhra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu or West Bengal, it is in BJP’s interest to make an independent foray here. It is unlikely that the ‘ally’ in a state will be giving BJP a fair share of seats or even the best seats to win. The Bookkeeper has seen this happen in Maharashtra, and hopes that BJP takes a similar aggressive posture in other states as well.

In conclusion, the Bookkeeper believes the efficiency with which the BJP manages to neutralise the threat of regional parties will determine its 2019 success. 

Wednesday 18 May 2016

A challenge...accepted!

Recently, a dear friend who has also consulted with me on several occasions happened to mention some of my predictions to a relative. This relative is a staunch follower of the traditional Parashari system of astrology and was unconvinced about stellar systems. That is fine, to each his own.

But, from nowhere he decided to issue me a challenge for predicting the marriage date for a female relative. I have nothing to prove to this gentleman. Who is he? In any case I study jyotisha, I do not 'practice astrology'. I have no energy to waste on such people. If anyone does not believe in my system or even astrology itself, I have no problem. I am ready to admit that I am a fool and astrology is a lie if it can get me out of debating with such dimwits.

Anyway, this put my friend in an awkward position being caught up between me and a hard place. So I decided to accept  the challenge. What made it worse was the fact that it was not a honest challenge either. An honest challenge would be that we take a chart, predict an event, and see whose event comes to pass. This person gave me a horoscope of a relative, whose marriage was on the verge of getting fixed (that he didnt tell me) and asked me to predict when the marriage would happen.

The chart and significators were as follows:



I put the Nadi significators here as they give a very quick idea about an event. Regular readers will be able to see that this is a very weak horoscope for marriage. In fact the full combination of marriage denial is there in the ongoing Jupiter Dasha (1 6 10). 

The next dasha also there is 1 6 8 12 combination. This combination makes one believe it would have been better one had not married. Saturn is the Dasha. Saturn is a separative planet. 1 6 8 12 is separation from spouse and accompanied by a lot of insults and expenditure.

Another thing readers would have (or should have) noticed is that Saturn aspects 2, 7 and 11, all three cusps denoting marriage. With such a malefic combination, this native's marriage will be pure hell.

I would have normally dismissed this chart in about 5 minutes after seeing this. The native is born in 1984. If marriage does not happen in Jupiter, the native will be 43. And if marriage is pushed beyond Saturn the native will be 62. Unless the native plans to get married at retirement age, I do not think this native will get marriage at all. If at all, it is simply impossible for the marriage to last. As per Nadi system.

But since this was a challenge, and it was a question of saving face of a friend, I decided to give it the Krishnamurti once over. Also there was the social question of breaking such a negative news. If I was asked to my face, I would not sugar coat it, but here it was a relative of the challenger who was the conduit.

As per K.P., the Dasha lord Jupiter is allowing marriage by virtue of its signifying the solitary 11 at star level. 

The I looked at the ongoing Bhukti of Mercury. This will go on till March 2018. While Mercury signifies the 2nd house, I wanted it to be a strong significator of the 7th, since the Dasha is a weak significator of an affiliate house and also signifies negative houses. In any case Mercury is in the sub of Venus and Venus does not signify any of 2/7/11 houses. It in fact signifies the Asc which is negative for marriage.

So marriage is not possible till March 2018. Perhaps in Bhukti is Mars which is the strong significator of the 7th house. So maybe in the period 5th Dec 2023 to 10 Nov 2024 the marriage of the native is possible. I did not do transits because I am sure the closest most Prashari guys get to an event is "sometime in the lifetime", by pointing out some logic-less yogas like a Rajayoga or a Gaja Kesari Yoga. I do not demean Parashari style nor Sage Parashar, I am not even 0.0001% of him, I only demean those people who by calling themselves Parashari jyotisha's demean the memory of Sage Parashar. Anyway, so a year's interval for marriage that will most likely will not happen was given by me.

Of course, when the answer was conveyed to the gentleman, I was referred to as a fraud and my system as inexact and impractical etc. Of course, because the person knew something that I did not, that the marriage was probably one phone call away from being fixed and the native was already sort of 'going steady' with the arranged match.

I was extremely irritated for about an hour. After that I told my friend, look I have basically predicted this match will not happen. I hope I am wrong.


I had forgotten this story completely, till I received a message from my friend, saying that the match has inexplicably fallen through. The marriage is not going to happen.

I do not want to gloat over someones misfortune, and I will not...I cannot! But I will be lying if it did not give me immense confidence on the accuracy of stellar systems. It is important because if something that was so clear to me had not come to pass, I would have questioned every prediction that I have made so far.

So whilst my sympathies and prayers are with the native, I am content in the knowledge that nothing happens without the consent of the celestial bodies and no amount of hating can call the accuracy of stellar systems into question. Destiny has a different plan for the native and I pray to Bhairavi to reveal it to that person soon!

Monday 16 May 2016

Kind words are encouraging

Just thought I'd share some kind words I received in the email today from someone I will refer to as S:

The email reproduced below with S's permission:

"Thank you so much for putting things into perspective for me and taking off some of the pressure that I have felt .  I feel much better and at ease after knowing all the things that have been going on in my chart and I feel more confident facing the challenges I have ahead . 

I have been going through a very difficult phase in my life for sometime now  .. I live on the other side of the globe.  found you through twitter and started reading your blogs.

I can just imagine how much work goes  into your excellent articles and successful predictions . I could not stop myself from contacting you. You came in as a much needed help and a guide.

I had a few questions which were really bothering me. Not only did you answer them, You were very honest in not sugar coating anything . 

I am glad  I came across you and  I would highly recommend you to anyone who is looking for a good and honest astrologer .

 I am very grateful for your clear and thoughtful explanation.
Thank You So Much!!"

The reason I put the email here is not for self praise, (well...maybe a little bit haha), but to highlight someone (S) who I consider a phenomenal individual, from whom there is much for us to learn.

Generally,  a person goes to an astrologer (or jyotisha, as I prefer) when all other avenues have failed and the person is the mindset, "what have I to lose?!". But it is in desperation that one makes the most mistakes. 

The person goes with the last bit of optimism, with the hope that maybe my time will turn and I will get good news from the astrologer. E.g. daughter/ son is not getting married, maybe her/ his time is just around the corner. Or maybe the astrologer will suggest an 'ram-baan upaya' (infallible remedy) that will solve some issue of mine.

The mind of the questioner is already primed for positives. So when an astrologer plays to this theme, the native is not going to question it! Whether the astrologer does it due to lack of scruples (generate a client) or out of good intentions (why to hurt someone, leave them with hope), I do not want to judge. But ideally, whatever may be the reason this is wrong. 

For example, if you go to a doctor, would you prefer him to tell you the truth or always say that nothing is wrong with you? Would he not be unethical if he detects, say Cancer, but leaves you with the thought that nothing is wrong with you. If you do not accept this behaviour from the doctor, why do you from a jyotisha? 

On one hand, astrologers insist on calling astrology a science, but on the other hand keep giving such predictions that are impossible to prove incorrect. The basic touchstone of science is that every theory has a failing point. The only way astrologers can achieve this infallible predictions is through using more caveat-ed language than a lawyer! But is such a prediction useful? 

S is such a remarkable person, who came to me with a unique problem. I still remember I saw her question with half closed eyes at about 2AM. The uniqueness of her issue forced me to wake up in the middle of the night and solve it. 

The key part is, there was a limited wriggle room on her main issue. To the extent remedies existed I suggested to her. I highlighted her weaknesses and the likely mistakes her chart suggests that may happen. She has promised that she will dutifully complete the remedies suggested that will ease the problem to a certain extent. But the problem will remain.  

The reason S is remarkable, is that she accepted what I was saying and was forthright about her problem. She demonstrated, "acceptance" of her problem. I consider "acceptance" as a spiritual virtue. She demonstrated spirituality without even knowing it. 

One acceptance is there there then there is an immediate ceasing of friction and conflict. You become in tune with the rhythm of nature. Once you stop fighting 'what is', can you decide how you want to lead the rest of your life. I have no doubt that S is poised for great things on the spiritual plane if she tries. This is not jyotisha, it is common sense. I have learned a lot from S, who has since, if I may use the term, become a friend rather than a client.

I have only met one another person who came to me with a marriage query. I told him, not destined for you. His reply? "Thank you, that is such a relief, now I can lead my life without stress". I did not expect this reply! But the person was on the older side, I can imagine the pressure from his family, or even the conflict in his mind, "why am I not getting married? Is there anything wrong with me? etc". Once his chart confirmed that marriage chances were incredibly dim, he knew in a flash that destiny has chosen a separate path for him. He accepted, and was free! 

Almost every person who gets a negative answer from me, has never consulted me again. They would rather go for someone who comforts then, do expensive Pooja and Homams. What is slated will come to pass in varying degrees. For example, if the Dasha lord signifies 3, 5, 1, 6, 10; whatever pooja and shaanti you do, how can you inject 2/7/11 in this signification that has already been decided at birth?! In fact, by suggesting useless remedies and causing pain and expense to the native the astrologers not only discredit the "science" of astrology but also cause the native to lose faith in God!

Maybe I will do a post on karma and remedies to express what Guruji K.S. Krishnamurti thought about remedies.

It is for this reason that S comes as a breath of fresh air to someone like me who studies jyotisha and does not 'practice astrology'. I pray that may Bhairavi ever be with her and keep her as strong and joyous as she is.

In passing I dedicate this song, to people like S.

Who will win in Tamil Nadu?

 I know I had said I would not check for poll results unless someone with a stake in the results asked me. But I could not resist the temptation to check for tamil nadu for the following reasons:

1) I have no qualms about either parties (ADMK or DMK) winning the polls

2) Exit polls have been inconclusive: India Today and News Nation give the lead to DMK while CVoter and VDP Associates give the lead to ADMK.

So naturally out of curiosity I cast 2 charts, first one to ask if ADMK would win and the next to ask if DMK would win. The charts are as follows:


ADMK winning?


DMK winning?


In the ADMK chart, the 6th CSL is Saturn. Saturn is posited in Mercury's star. The significations are

Sa 1, 3 4; Me 5, 8 11

In the DMK chart, the 6th CSL is Sun. Sun is posited in its own star so we will  use the sub Jupiter's significations. The significations are

Su 11, 3; Ju 3, 7 10

ADMK's 6th CSL is signifying houses 5 and 8 which suggest victory of its opposition. It is also signifying the 11th house which is positive for its winning.

However, DMK's 6th CSL is much more cleaner in suggesting a victory, though its strong signification of 10 and also signification of 11 at planet level. It is not signifying any defeat houses like 4, 5, 8 or 12.

Thus it appears that whatever confusion the pollsters and statisticians have, the charts are absolutely clear that DMK will win.

Let us look at the Nadi perspective as well. Here are thes significators:

ADMK sigs:


DMK sigs:



Ongoing significators are Su-Sa-Ma.

Sun:
ADMK: Signifying 6 10 at planet and star, neutral at sub level.
DMK: Signifying 11 at planet and star and 10 at sub level, making combination of 10 11.

Sun is more positive for DMK.

Saturn:
ADMK: Full combination of 5 8 12, countered by a solitary 11.
DMK: 5 8 at planet level, 5 12 at sub level, but not joined as star has 11. 11 at sub level too.

Saturn is equal for both.

Mars:
ADMK: 6 12 at planet and sub level, no positive houses.
DMK:  Combination of 5 8 12 countered by solitary 11.

Mars equally bad for both.

However, on the day of the results, Mars antara will be getting over and Rahu will be starting. Lets look at Rahu:

ADMK: Full combination of 6 8 12
DMK: Combination of 6 8/ 5 8 but defeated by combination of 10 11.

Net, net I believe ADMK will lose and DMK will win, albeit by a narrow margin.

What is pitta pravritti?

Hindus classify biological tendencies into three primary types:

Kapha: This tendency is made with the combination of Water and Earth. In other words, fluidity and stability.

Pitta: This tendency is made with the combination of Fire and Water. In other words, 'energy' or heat and fluidity.

Vaata: This tendency is made with the combination of Space and Air. In other words, vacant-ness and extreme fluidity.

Regular readers may recall that even the signs are classified as Agni (Fire), Prithvi (Earth), Vayu (Air) and Jala (Water). Something that I have not explicitly touched upon earlier is that even the nakshatras (stars) have been classified into one of these tendencies (Vaata/ Pitta/ Kapha).

Now a couple of years back, I was unwell. Western medicine can treat an illness, but in my limited experience, treating someone who is 'unwell' is not the same as treating someone who is 'ill'. 'Illness' is an event, i.e. you get an infection etc. I would even classify diseases such as diabetes or asthama as an illness. But how do you treat someone who is 'unwell'. 

Characteristics of being unwell, from personal experience has been a big change in appetite, depression, a change in thought process, an being bereft of joy. 

All the blood work etc came back normal, so what was wrong? No doctor could tell. As unless my vitals move out of the specified range, the doctors call me 'normal'. (An interesting word this, 'normal'. Does it suggest I am well, or does it suggest I am as unwell as the rest of the people, so its normal haha).

Anyway, at that time I met with an Ayurvedic Nadi (pulse) doctor. He did not ask for my symptoms, neither did he ask me to get any tests done. He held my pulse for about 5-7 minutes and told me exactly what symptoms I was experiencing and specified a path for treatment. 

During the diagnosis, he mentioned that I had a 'pitta pravrutti', i.e. a body that was dominated by the pitta tendency (described above). So his treatment was geared to normalise that pitta (I think).

At that time I had no knowledge of astrology. But now that I have been a student for sometime, I decided to check if this 'pitta' tendency is indeed visible from my chart.  I did a very simple thing. I just noted down the nakshatras in which my primary nine planets are located, and wrote down next to them what tendency does that nakshatra represent.

First let me outline the tendencies of various nakshatras:


Note I have sorted each column in alphabetical order to make it easy to read.

Now when I looked at all my planets and the star they were posited in, the result was astonishing:

Pitta - 6 planets

Vaata - 1 planet

Kapha - 2 planets

It is amazing that the doctor was able to gauge this just from my pulse!

Now I decided to test it out on someone else I know, to whom the doctor had given similar diagnosis, i.e. pitta leaning body. Taking that person's birth details I carried out the same exercise and arrived at this:

Pitta - 7

Vaata - 2

Kapha - 0

That so much knowledge is hidden in our ayurveda and how closely it aligns with jyotisha is simply amazing!

Next I decided to check the chart of one of my cousins. He is one of 'those people', i.e. people who eat anything, anywhere, have no fixed times of sleeping or waking, take in little to no exercise, do not use a mosquito net, drink alcohol, drink water anywhere etc and yet do not seem to suffer from any major physical illness.

This is how his chart is placed:

Pitta - 2

Vaata - 3

Kapha - 4

Even a layperson can see that this persons tendencies or 'doshas' are much better balanced than the earlier two examples. 

Also, the dominance of kapha in him can be seen. Since Kapha provides the earth element, it has provided him a natural stability of structure. Thus due to a strong foundation, his body is able to handle much more variations than average. However, I think the primary strength comes from a much better balancing of the elements rather than the predominance of any one element.

Note:

Pitta 
Water and fire are both transformative substances. Grains put in water and boiled by applying fire are converted into food.

Thus thinking intuitively, we imagine what pitta tendency is responsible for in our bodies. digestions, absorbtion (i.e. conversion of food into flesh), thus also metabolism. It is also concerned with intelligence (i.e. conversion of knowledge and data into wisdom and inferences). Automatically, we can infer what organs are governed by pitta: intestine, stomach, sweat glands, blood. The fire element means it is also responsible for maintaining body temperature. Fire also is in charge of emotions that consume the native, i.e. anger and hate.

Vaata
As seen from the description earlier. Vaata is the most subtle of the three being just air and space. Now intuitively, my readers will be able to tell what is the most subtle thing in the human body? Thoughts and emotions! So intense emotions like anxiety, fear, etc will be governed by Vaata. Since Vaata is in charge of movement (air and water, almost unrestricted movement), all sorts of fits, spasms, dizzyness etc will be due to a fault vaata. The root of emotions and movements is the cell impulses or synapses. What can be more subtle than that!? This too comes under Vaata.


Kapha 
This is the basic building block. Just like a building is constructed by mixing concrete in water, Kapha too is nothing different. It is the earth element and water element. Just as the quality of the concrete determines the resistance of the building, so does Kapha determine the resistance of the human body. It provides stability to the system. Strong muscles, well oiled joints, and the traditional measure of strength, the chest, are all seats of Kapha. Due to its stability, Kapha will breed emotions with a lot of longevity, like love or attachment and even envy on the other side. 


I have given the nakshatras and their tendencies here. So how are yours, balanced or imbalanced?!

Friday 13 May 2016

Marriage, simply impossible!

I got this chart from a friend to whom the native girl is related. Born in 1985, the native is already at an age which is considered 'late' for marriage. Naturally, parents are worried and are asking various jyotishas when would the auspicious day arrive.

The birth time in the chart was given as 8.45AM. I took up examination of the chart at 11:10PM today,  when the ruling planets were: (Su), Ju, Me, Mo, Ve.

The 7th CSL in the natal chart as per the given time was Saturn. Saturn does not appear in the ruling planets and as such the time is off by a little bit. 

The 7th cusp lies in Aries at 9 degrees 53 minutes and 12 seconds. The immediate next sublord is Mercury and the immediate before one is Jupiter. Both of the above appear in the RPs, however since Jupiter appears higher up in the priority chain, I select that and tweak the chart time to 8:42AM to take the 7th CSL to  9 degrees 11 minutes and 32 seconds to make Jupiter the 7th CSL.

The rectified birth chart is as follows:


Let us now look at significators of the 7th CSL Jupiter. Jupiter is posited in 4th, owns 3rd and 6th. Jupiter's starlord is Moon. Moon is posited in 4th and owns 10th. So the 7th CSL signifies:

4, 3 6; 4, 10

Jupiter has 3 aspects (5th, 7th and 9th). By these aspects, Jupiter is signifying 8th, 10th and 12th cusp. Again even at the weakest level, no marriage positive houses are signified.

So none of the marriage positive houses of 2/7/11 are signified by the 7th CSL. This means marriage is not possible.

Disappointed, I decided to check if Jupiter signifies any of 2/7/11 through 'special karakatva'. Shri Shahasane says when a planet becomes the sole significator of a house then those other planets that have this planet as their sublord also become significators of that house, and of a stronger order than this original planet.

When would such a case arise? Only when a house is empty, and the house lord is untenanted. 

Of the three houses for marriage, only the 2nd house is empty. It falls in Scorpio. Its house lord Mars has no planets in its stars. So Mars is untenanted. Mars is the sublord of Saturn and Rahu. So Saturn and Rahu will signify the 2nd house in addition to their usual signification. But alas, neither Saturn nor Rahu is the 7th CSL, Jupiter is. Therefore Jupiter does not become a marriage positive house even by using special significations.

As such, I am constrained to say that marriage will not take place for the native. Her destiny lies elsewhere. In fact, I feel that by forcing marriage on such a person, or even pressurizing her needlessly it will only cause her more sadness. I hazard to say even if the marriage had taken place for such a native, it would have been a very tumultuous one.

Now reader may come up with a question, what if my birth time rectification is wrong? Saturn was the 7th CSL in the original chart, and as we saw it does signify the 2nd house, but because I changed the 7th CSL to Jupiter, the marriage is being denied. This is a fair question. To this I can only state, that reality is the biggest attestor. 

Lets say the girl started looking out from the age of 24 for a suitable groom. That time Rahu Dasha was on. Rahu is posited in the 7th house, and through its signlord Mars signifies 2 7 11 (full marriage combination). Rahu is in the sub of Mars which as just discussed signifies the relevant houses. Since then the native has been through the Bhuktis of Saturn, Mercury, Ketu and presently in Venus. Of which Mercury, Ketu and the ongoing Venus Bhukti also signify marriage. So why has this event eluded the native?

I want to point out something interesting, again related to the Nadi V. KP posts. Look at the nadi significators below:



As per Nadi, Ke, Su, Ra, Ju, Me all signify marriage. This is because Nadi assumes the sub can also offer events, but KP says sub can only divert/ modify the event already being offered by the planet and star. So for example, Nadi will say Jupiter promises marriage. KP will say, Jupiter promises gain of car, house, or increase in reputation through business or service, and some communication related positives.

Thursday 12 May 2016

#PoliticsPost The Enigma that is BJP's Media Policy

Who am I? What is the purpose of life?

Melody itni chocalatey kyon hai?

Hum Clormint kyon khate hai?

Iski kameez, mere kameez se safed kaise?


These are some of the questions that have plagued humanity for a long time. Another question which is similarly impossible to answer is “What is BJP’s media policy?”

The question popped into the Bookkeepers mind after seeing BJP commit a schoolboy level PR mistake w.r.t. the degree rabble raised by the Aam Aadmi Party. It was a non-issue.  Not only did anyone believe that the PM had lied about his degrees but many didn’t even care given the great work he has been doing.

Such malicious attacks can be tackled in one of two  ways:

1)  Dismiss them outright and immediately or

2) Ignore them completely and they will run out of steam


BJP did neither. After allowing the degree question to be raised by every news channel possible and making a proverbial mountain of a molehill, the two senior most leaders in the Party gave a press conference to show the PM’s degree certificates.  The people making the allegations had no credibility but this act of sending people of the stature of Shri Amit Shah to counter what effectively was a non-issue, BJP lent its credibility to the non-entities who raised it. Now people who didn’t even know the fracas was began to question, “if this was a non issue then why did the number 2 and number 3 in the BJP invest time in clarifying it?”? 

As expected the Party that originally raised these questions were not satisfied and began to raise more nonsensical questions. They had in fact won this round.

With respect, did Amit Shah ji believe that the AAP thinks that the PM has lied about his degrees? Of course not. They wanted attention, they wanted credibility and you just handed it to them. If at all a counter was needed, the BJP should have simply put the degrees on their website and not engaged in this issue at all.

This slip-up is, sadly, not an isolated example. The more I look at how the BJP engages with the media, I realize that it is not so much that I disagree with BJP’s media policy; it is that I doubt one exists at all.

Broadly a media policy exists for four purposes:

1) Convey relevant policy information to the public at large

2) Engage with the media through debates, discussions and for feedback

3) Quash rumours and  issue clarifications to incorrect stories being spread

4) Managing public perception
  
The first thing the formulation of a media policy should entail is mapping the media landscape with details like which channels are ideologically closer to us, which are not? What is the reach of various channels, how should the party allocate its time among them? What is my policy for dissemination of information? How should I treat a defamatory article or misinformation? Who are the various journalists and who can be engaged with and on what level etc.

It appears that no formal study of the above issues has been carried out at all as how the party engages with journalists with different biases is not clear.

An easy example is that of a TV news channel, that is widely considered to be a pro-Congress (or at least anti-BJP) channel. Whether this is true or not does not matter for this debate, what matters is how BJP’s voters perceive it to be. The normal response to this channel would have been for the party to boycott and the government to sideline to the extent possible. This isn’t unheard of certainly. Instead, a senior member of the BJP regularly gives exclusive interviews to this channel. I assume that BJP still sends representatives on that channel’s debate/ talk shows as well. Even a battered Congress has apparently boycotted Times Now which is by far the most viewed English News channel today, for their perception of its editorial bias. If the Congress can register protest by giving up maximum viewership, what is keeping BJP from doing the same, especially given the viewership numbers of this other channel?

This is not a recommendation for the BJP to boycott this or that channel, but it is an endeavor to understand, why would a journalist cover you favorably, if the one being unfavorable is given the same preference or sometimes even more than him? Is this the most politically effective way to deal with the media?

Since the last 8-10 years, the ‘9 o clock debate’ has become the primary talking point in the English news media. While the debate with Arnab of Times Now is the most popular, all channels carry some variation of this format around that time every evening. Has BJP trained its spokespersons in the art of handling these debates? From the way many of them debate, it does not appear to be so.

A stark example was the recent debate about the Agusta scam on Times Now. This is an affair where the Congress is completely on the back foot. The discussions about this have been going on for weeks. Remember, Congress was not even present on the debate panel but was represented their ‘proxies’ from other parties. The only two counters that they had was 1) Why has BJP taken two years and not done anything and 2) Deal was initiated during NDA 1. What’s more, even Arnab Goswami’s editorial decibels were against Congress.

However, the other debaters were able to skillfully divert the topic to their whim, and the BJP spokesperson was chasing them everywhere. First cardinal rule of battle is fight on your terms, and the opposition was doing just that. In fact despite the odds being heavily stacked in BJP’s favour (as just described) the BJP spokesperson was incredibly ineffectual as a debater. It even prompted Arnab in saying that the debate has slipped away from the BJP. Could the BJP spokesperson have prepared a counter for the two point fig leaf that the opposition carried? Was their line of defence so difficult to anticipate? Even if so, isn’t that why we elected BJP? For the difficult jobs (Narendra  Modi’s words these, not mine).

In fact had any of the spokesperson’s watched how Ayaan Hirsi Ali handled Barkha Dutt’s attempt to divert the focus of the ‘Women in Islam’ debate from a few weeks earlier, they would have seen how these diversionary tactics are handled. The reason I am not naming the BJP spokesperson is because it is not an individual issue but virtually an institutional one. Don’t take the Bookkeepers word for it; here are some other eminent voices from social media:




If the BJP is serious about debating on these shows then it will have to accept the fact that most of them will have a hostile environment and BJP will need spokespersons that are forceful and well prepared, not just in the topic matter but also in the skills of debate. Debating is a skill, it can be learned. There are people who teach this skill. If only they take efforts.

Another important aspect of a media policy is to quash rumours and misinformation so that public narrative will remain informed and positive. Let us examine how the BJP’s media policy handles misinformation.

As per an article on opindia.com, a speculative report in a British newspaper on January 26, 2015 regarding the cost of Prime Minister Modi’s Republic Day suit, set the rumour mills in India spinning. Indian journalists were reporting the price of the suit being in the range of Rs.80,000 to Rs 1 million. This was such a ridiculous rumour the BJP should have quashed it outright. But as per the same article, it appears to the Bookkeeper that it took till mid-February for the true cost of the suit to be clarified. In the meanwhile it became a lie repeated a thousand times and I won’t be surprised if it continues to find mention in speeches made by opposition leaders till 2019. Why BJP’s media cell did nothing to counter a false, vicious and personal misinformation campaign for weeks is beyond me.

Social media is not new to BJP. In fact social media added a lot of muscle to the campaign of Narendra Modi before the 2014vhustings. However, what information is to be shared and how it is to be framed is something that others in the BJP should learn. 

Let us take this recent tweet:


This sounds like a tweet from someone in the Opposition! He should be answering that question here and not asking it. What did Venkaiah ji achieve by this tweet. Even BJP supporters were frustrated. Look at some of the responses:



One can go on with examples, but people following BJP get the point. Based on the output at least, BJP does not seem to have a formal media policy at all.  It is about time the leadership developed a team that can handle debates , engage with the media and be effective users of social media.

Stop Press! 

This announcement comes just as this note was about to be published. It is the latest in the series of enigmatic moves, that convinces one that either BJP has no media policy, or each minister has his own personal one:




This deal is basically a MoU that has been signed by the Ministry of Textiles with NDTV Ethnic Retail Limited, presumably an affiliate of the channel NDTV, for popularizing hand loom textiles for Indian youth.

One question to the government:

Does the government not  have its own hand loom board or khadi bhandars for this? If it wanted to go with a private enterprise why not go with better brands that are known to the youth and can optimally market this endeavor? Let the reader ask themselves, does anyone he or she knows, has ever heard of (much less, shopped) from NDTV Ethnic Retail Limited?

Tuesday 10 May 2016

Eating disorders: A preliminary research

Sitting idle one day, I decided to check if it was possible to identify eating disorders. I am trained in finance, so I honestly do not know how many sub-classifications this term ("Eating disorder") has, and how many of these sub-classifications and genuine and how many 'manufactured'.

The second problem I faced was getting birth data on people with eating disorders. So I trawled the astrodatabank to get data on Anorexia and Bulimia (the only two disorders I know of from Hollywood gossip haha).

Because I  am unsure of their birth times I am forced to rely only on planet arrangements and Nadi significators to arrive at my conclusions. 

Before cluttering this space with chart data, allow me to pen down my inferences. I would be obliged if my readers (over 100 a day), can test this on their own charts if they are indeed afflicted with any eating disorder. If they can send me accurate  birth times for themselves or anyone they know with eating disorders, I can create a database at my end for further study. Feel free to let me know of any other patters that you may have noticed! If the birth time is accurate then I can even go into the cuspal sublord levels to check. Rest assured identities will not be revealed.

Would it not be amazing if what is happening with an individual can be identified this way? Or even to figure out if one's loved one has this tendency, would it not enable parents to keep an eye on what is happening?

Please write to me at bhairaviuvacha@gmail.com with the subject "Eating disorder: <specify type of disorder>. I will need birth place (city), birth time and birth date.

Conclusions:

1) Saturn OR Uranus either in the 10th cusp OR aspecting the 10th cusp OR aspecting the 10th lord OR conjunct with the 10th lord OR conjunct with the 10th cusp

Remember Saturn has 3 aspects - it looks at the 3rd, 7th and 10th sign from the sign it is posited in. Uranus has just the 7th aspect

Conjunction is sign level, ie. not in degrees

I found Saturn in more cases than Uranus for the above conditions


2) Ne-Ju or Ur-JU or Ne-Ve or Ur-Ve or Ju-Ve conjunction or aspect (not necessarily mutual aspect) also noticed in eating disorder cases.

Notably, both above conditions should be satisfied.

Now let us  examine some of the cases:

CASE 1:

1


CASE 2:

1) Saturn aspects 10th cusp by its 10th aspect, and even Uranus is present in the 10th cusp

2) Uranus and Jupiter has mutual aspect




1)  Saturn aspects 10th cusp by its 10th aspect, and even Uranus is present in the 10th cusp

2) Venus and Neptune are conjunct in Virgo. Notably, Ju also aspects Uranus by its 5th aspect.


CASE 3:


1) Saturn aspects 10th cusp by its 3rd aspect. Uranus aspects 10th cusp by its 7th aspect

2) Venus and Uranus conjunct, Jupiter and Neptune also conjunct


CASE 4:


1) Saturn aspects 10th cusp by its 10th aspect

2) Neptune is conjunct with Venus in Scorpio. Notably, Jupiter aspects Uranus by its 9th aspect


CASE 5:



1) Saturn aspects 10th lord (Jup) by its 7th aspect. Uranus aspects 10th cusp by its 7th aspect. 

2) Uranus and Venus are conjunct in Virgo


CASE 6:


1) Saturn aspects 10th by its 3rd apect

2) Venus conjunct with Neptune in Scorpio


CASE 7:




1) Uranus in rapt conjunction with the 10th cusp in Libra

2) Jupiter and Venus conjunct in Aquarius


CASE 8:



1) Uranus inside the 10th cusp, Saturn conjunct with the 10th lord (Sun) in Pisces

2) Neptune and Venus mutual aspects (7th)


CASE 9:



1) Saturn is the 10th lord and also aspects the 10th cusp by its 7th aspect

2) Jupiter and Venus conjunct in Capricorn 


CASE 10:



1) Saturn is the 10th lord and also aspects the 10th cusp by its 7th aspect

2) Jupiter and Venus conjunct in Leo


CASE 11:



1) Saturn conjunct with the 10th cusp, Uranus inside the 10th cusp

2) Jupiter and Venus conjunct in Pisces