Long time no see!
As elections have began in some pace from today, I am putting some more parts of my quant model out in public domain. For about 300-340 seats my model involved making an estimate of the voting %. By plain visually observation, it appears that the BJP benefits from a higher voting %. My vote % expectation is a calculation based on the past trend of voting depth and the top voting % achieved by each constituency. Anyway, here are my workings, over all voting in 2009 in 52.6% and I expect it to go to 58-59%.
| MADHYA PRADESH | 2009A | 2014E |
| Morena | 53.04 | 53.04 |
| Bhind | 38.39 | 52.54 |
| Gwalior | 41.12 | 60.43 |
| Guna | 54.03 | 58.78 |
| Sagar | 48.12 | 57.65 |
| Tikamgarh | 43.42 | 43.42 |
| Damoh | 44.12 | 56.51 |
| Khajuraho | 43.21 | 66.83 |
| Satna | 54.63 | 62.09 |
| Rewa | 48.34 | 48.34 |
| Sidhi | 49.75 | 57.43 |
| Shahdol | 49.50 | 57.99 |
| Jabalpur | 43.80 | 55.72 |
| Mandla | 56.25 | 59.72 |
| Balaghat | 56.49 | 66.50 |
| Chhindwara | 71.86 | 71.86 |
| Hoshangabad | 54.82 | 65.10 |
| Vidisha | 45.09 | 57.59 |
| Bhopal | 45.07 | 57.68 |
| Rajgarh | 51.57 | 63.77 |
| Dewas | 60.35 | 60.35 |
| Ujjain | 53.25 | 64.15 |
| Mandsour | 55.83 | 68.39 |
| Ratlam | 50.93 | 54.56 |
| Dhar | 54.69 | 61.43 |
| Indore | 50.76 | 61.25 |
| Khargone | 60.18 | 65.51 |
| Khandwa | 60.01 | 63.65 |
| Betul | 49.47 | 58.03 |
| 51.31 | 59.66 | |
| MAHARASHTRA | ||
| Nandurbar | 52.64 | 59.25 |
| Dhule | 42.53 | 50.69 |
| Jalgaon | 42.38 | 54.95 |
| Raver | 50.75 | 50.75 |
| Buldhana | 61.72 | 61.72 |
| Akola | 49.91 | 60.91 |
| Amravati | 51.45 | 57.67 |
| Wardha | 54.60 | 62.97 |
| Ramtek | 50.88 | 50.88 |
| Nagpur | 43.44 | 55.02 |
| Bhandara - gondiya | 71.11 | 71.11 |
| Gadchiroli Chimur | 65.14 | 72.06 |
| Chandrapur | 58.48 | 63.40 |
| Yavatmal Washim | 54.06 | 54.06 |
| Hingoli | 59.68 | 59.68 |
| Nanded | 53.83 | 59.82 |
| Parbhani | 54.08 | 54.08 |
| Jalna | 55.89 | 64.19 |
| Dindori | 47.57 | 56.03 |
| Palghar | 48.10 | 49.05 |
| Bhiwandi | 39.39 | 39.39 |
| Kalyan | 34.31 | 34.31 |
| Thane | 41.50 | 41.50 |
| Mumbai north | 42.60 | 53.33 |
| Mumbai NW | 44.06 | 44.06 |
| Mumbai NE | 42.46 | 52.16 |
| Mumbai NC | 39.52 | 49.38 |
| Mumbai SC | 39.50 | 39.50 |
| Pune | 40.66 | 53.52 |
| Baramati | 46.07 | 60.69 |
| Ahmednagar | 51.84 | 55.37 |
| Beed | 65.60 | 69.01 |
| Latur | 54.93 | 57.32 |
| Solapur | 46.62 | 55.85 |
| Madha | 59.04 | 59.04 |
| 50.18 | 55.22 | |
| CHATTISGARH | ||
| Sarguja | 61.62 | 64.28 |
| Raigarh | 65.31 | 68.81 |
| Janjgir Champa | 48.57 | 56.10 |
| Korba | 58.41 | 58.41 |
| Bilaspur | 52.28 | 60.50 |
| Rajnandgaon | 58.86 | 62.70 |
| Durg | 55.93 | 62.16 |
| Raipur | 46.99 | 57.37 |
| Mahasamund | 56.69 | 59.11 |
| Bastar | 47.33 | 52.83 |
| Kanker | 57.20 | 59.96 |
| 55.38 | 60.20 | |
| Karnataka | ||
| Chikkodi | 67.56 | 67.56 |
| Belgaum | 54.75 | 55.35 |
| Bagalkot | 63.09 | 63.09 |
| Bijapur | 47.29 | 50.31 |
| Gulbarga | 49.21 | 54.94 |
| Raichur | 45.92 | 59.80 |
| Bidar | 52.99 | 54.46 |
| Koppal | 55.40 | 61.73 |
| Bellary | 61.44 | 65.51 |
| Haveri | 63.59 | 63.59 |
| Dharwad | 56.55 | 58.61 |
| Uttara Kanada | 59.09 | 59.09 |
| Davanagere | 67.46 | 67.46 |
| Shimoga | 66.47 | 66.47 |
| Udupi-chikmanglur | 68.22 | 68.22 |
| Hassan | 69.17 | 69.17 |
| Dakshin Kanada | 74.45 | 74.45 |
| Chitradurga | 54.49 | 54.49 |
| Tumkur | 64.80 | 69.51 |
| Mandya | 68.83 | 68.83 |
| Mysore | 58.88 | 58.88 |
| Chamarajanagar | 67.91 | 67.91 |
| Bangalore rural | 57.92 | 57.92 |
| Banglore N | 46.72 | 46.72 |
| Banglore C | 44.55 | 44.55 |
| Banglore S | 44.76 | 44.76 |
| Chikkballur | 68.09 | 68.09 |
| Kolar | 69.15 | 72.24 |
| 59.60 | 61.20 | |
| Bihar | ||
| Valmiki Nagar | 46.99 | 46.99 |
| Paschim Champaran | 42.22 | 42.22 |
| Purvi Champaran | 40.61 | 40.61 |
| Sheohar | 45.15 | 59.63 |
| Sitamarhi | 42.54 | 56.18 |
| Madhubani | 39.83 | 54.12 |
| Araria | 55.71 | 60.54 |
| Kishanganj | 52.84 | 59.18 |
| Katihar | 56.95 | 65.70 |
| Purnia | 53.99 | 59.76 |
| Madhepura | 50.15 | 50.15 |
| Darbhanga | 41.75 | 57.66 |
| Muzaffarpur | 46.41 | 46.41 |
| Gopalganj | 37.40 | 37.40 |
| Siwan | 50.05 | 60.92 |
| Samastipur | 44.54 | 44.54 |
| Bhagalpur | 43.89 | 54.62 |
| Patna sahib | 33.64 | 50.83 |
| Buxar | 46.51 | 55.78 |
| Sasaram | 42.70 | 60.60 |
| Gaya | 42.45 | 55.87 |
| Nawada | 41.62 | 52.81 |
| 45.36 | 53.29 | |
| Jharkhand | ||
| Rajmahal | 55.21 | 61.69 |
| Dumka | 55.13 | 60.80 |
| Godda | 56.55 | 56.55 |
| Chatra | 45.67 | 63.26 |
| Kodarma | 56.14 | 58.04 |
| Giridih | 45.98 | 53.40 |
| Dhanbad | 45.07 | 59.27 |
| Ranchi | 44.56 | 59.37 |
| Jamshedpur | 51.12 | 59.02 |
| Singhbhum | 60.77 | 60.77 |
| Khunti | 52.03 | 53.58 |
| Lohardaga | 53.42 | 55.17 |
| Palamau | 45.97 | 45.97 |
| Hazaribagh | 53.98 | 58.04 |
| 51.54 | 57.50 | |
| Union territories + NCT | ||
| Chandigarh | 65.51 | 65.87 |
| Andaman Nicobar | 64.16 | 78.36 |
| Dadra/NH | 73.23 | 76.17 |
| Daman/Diu | 71.32 | 72.38 |
| Chandani Chowk | 55.21 | 62.62 |
| NE Delhi | 52.38 | 52.38 |
| East Delhi | 53.43 | 53.43 |
| New Delhi | 55.71 | 55.71 |
| NW Delhi | 47.69 | 47.69 |
| West Delhi | 52.39 | 52.39 |
| S. Delhi | 47.41 | 47.41 |
| Lakshadweep | 85.90 | 85.90 |
| 60.36 | 62.53 | |
| Punjab | ||
| Gurdaspur | 70.77 | 70.77 |
| Amritsar | 65.63 | 69.99 |
| Hoshiarpur | 64.90 | 67.22 |
| Ganganagar | 60.97 | 60.97 |
| 65.57 | 67.24 | |
| Rajasthan | ||
| Ganganagar | 60.97 | 61.25 |
| Bikaner | 41.25 | 52.29 |
| Churu | 52.41 | 60.45 |
| Jhunjhunu | 42.03 | 54.56 |
| Sikar | 48.10 | 56.60 |
| Jaipur rural | 47.54 | 53.17 |
| Jaipur | 48.26 | 53.53 |
| Alwar | 55.54 | 57.35 |
| Bharatpur | 39.02 | 52.43 |
| Karauli Dholpur | 37.38 | 37.38 |
| Dausa | 63.95 | 63.95 |
| Tonk-Sawai Madhopur | 53.12 | 55.05 |
| Ajmer | 52.99 | 57.07 |
| Nagaur | 41.03 | 53.48 |
| Pali | 42.96 | 50.00 |
| Jodhpur | 45.23 | 51.48 |
| Barmer | 54.47 | 60.47 |
| Jalore | 37.98 | 47.13 |
| Udaipur | 48.49 | 55.14 |
| Banswara | 52.79 | 58.74 |
| Chittorgarh | 49.64 | 59.61 |
| Rajsamand | 39.68 | 39.68 |
| Bhilwara | 50.54 | 56.67 |
| Kota | 45.53 | 55.30 |
| Jhalawar Baran | 60.29 | 60.29 |
| 48.45 | 54.52 | |
| Gujarat | ||
| Kachch | 42.55 | 50.46 |
| Banaskantha | 49.83 | 59.82 |
| Patan | 44.67 | 56.03 |
| Mahesana | 49.74 | 61.28 |
| Sabarkantha | 29.41 | 48.02 |
| Gandhinagar | 50.83 | 57.26 |
| Ahmbad East | 42.35 | 54.19 |
| Ahmbad West | 48.22 | 57.13 |
| Surendranagar | 39.73 | 50.83 |
| Rajkot | 44.64 | 49.15 |
| Porbandar | 47.67 | 52.51 |
| Jamnagar | 45.79 | 50.55 |
| Junagadh | 57.88 | 62.11 |
| Amreli | 39.97 | 51.68 |
| Bhavnagar | 45.16 | 51.91 |
| Anand | 48.41 | 58.77 |
| Kheda | 41.60 | 41.60 |
| Panchmahal | 42.65 | 42.65 |
| Dahod | 44.73 | 49.06 |
| Vadodara | 49.02 | 49.02 |
| Chota Udaipur | 54.19 | 58.30 |
| Bharuch | 57.14 | 64.69 |
| Bardoli | 57.81 | 64.61 |
| Surat | 49.01 | 58.92 |
| Navsari | 46.66 | 46.66 |
| Valsad | 56.11 | 56.11 |
| 47.15 | 53.97 | |
| Haryana | ||
| Ambala | 68.51 | 73.79 |
| Karnal | 66.64 | 73.20 |
| Sonipat | 64.75 | 70.33 |
| Bhiwani - Mahendra | 71.34 | 71.34 |
| Gurgaon | 60.80 | 60.80 |
| Faridabad | 56.66 | 65.15 |
| 64.78 | 69.10 | |
| Himachal Pradesh | ||
| Kangra | 55.19 | 65.10 |
| Mandi | 64.09 | 64.09 |
| Hamirpur | 58.55 | 66.51 |
| Shimla | 55.73 | 64.13 |
| 58.39 | 64.96 | |
| Uttaranchal | ||
| Tehri Garwhal | 50.38 | 50.65 |
| Garwhal | 48.87 | 50.84 |
| Almora | 45.47 | 47.68 |
| Nanital Udhamsingh | 58.69 | 59.75 |
| Hardwar | 60.89 | 64.16 |
| 52.86 | 54.62 | |
| Arunachal Pradesh | ||
| Arunachal West | 65.93 | 73.48 |
| Arunachal East | 71.36 | 73.17 |
| 68.65 | 73.32 | |
| Assam | ||
| Karimganj | 64.13 | 75.41 |
| Silchar | 70.37 | 76.19 |
| Autonomous district | 69.40 | 76.71 |
| Dhubri | 76.31 | 76.31 |
| Kokrajhar | 73.65 | 73.65 |
| Barpeta | 72.70 | 84.14 |
| Gauhati | 64.46 | 64.46 |
| Mangaldoi | 69.85 | 78.80 |
| Tezpur | 69.67 | 76.95 |
| Nowgong | 70.85 | 78.31 |
| Kaliabor | 71.24 | 75.89 |
| Jorhat | 64.58 | 70.02 |
| Dibrugarh | 67.29 | 69.41 |
| Lakhimpur | 68.35 | 74.26 |
| 69.49 | 75.04 | |
| J&K | ||
| Udhampur | 44.88 | 51.73 |
| Jammu | 49.06 | 54.19 |
| 46.97 | 52.96 | |
| Uttar Pradesh | ||
| Saharanpur | 63.25 | 66.25 |
| Kairana | 56.59 | 63.81 |
| Muzaffarnagar | 54.44 | 65.89 |
| Bijnor | 55.01 | 59.25 |
| Nagina | 53.78 | 53.78 |
| Moradabad | 54.82 | 61.60 |
| Rampur | 52.50 | 62.67 |
| Sambhal | 52.83 | 65.46 |
| Amroha | 60.20 | 64.44 |
| Meerut | 48.23 | 61.97 |
| Baghpat | 47.93 | 66.76 |
| Ghaziabad | 45.30 | 45.30 |
| Gautam Buddh nagar | 48.54 | 48.54 |
| Bulandshahr | 45.08 | 58.95 |
| Aligarh | 51.28 | 60.74 |
| Hathras | 45.10 | 56.90 |
| Mathura | 54.15 | 60.21 |
| Agra | 42.03 | 58.63 |
| Fatehpur sikri | 51.56 | 51.59 |
| Firozabad | 48.16 | 51.21 |
| Mainpuri | 49.67 | 58.32 |
| Etah | 44.46 | 58.05 |
| Badaun | 52.45 | 59.16 |
| Aonla | 53.78 | 55.02 |
| Bareilly | 50.36 | 58.31 |
| Pilibhit | 63.96 | 63.96 |
| Shahjahanpur | 48.68 | 57.56 |
| Kheri | 54.59 | 56.26 |
| Dhaurahra | 59.83 | 59.83 |
| Sitapur | 57.31 | 58.93 |
| Hardoi | 40.55 | 50.08 |
| Unnao | 49.73 | 55.81 |
| Mohanlalganj | 46.32 | 51.55 |
| Lucknow | 35.33 | 48.55 |
| Sultanpur | 49.47 | 49.47 |
| Pratapgarh | 44.66 | 50.39 |
| Farrukhabad | 46.78 | 55.49 |
| Etawah | 45.04 | 59.68 |
| Kannauj | 49.32 | 62.22 |
| Kanpur | 36.90 | 51.93 |
| Akbarpur | 43.63 | 56.44 |
| Jalaun | 47.34 | 57.83 |
| Jhansi | 55.17 | 59.44 |
| Hamirpur | 48.40 | 55.74 |
| Banda | 44.71 | 51.72 |
| Fatehpur | 45.19 | 49.68 |
| Phoolpur | 38.71 | 54.33 |
| Allahabad | 43.41 | 53.04 |
| Barabanki | 52.28 | 52.28 |
| Faizabad | 49.94 | 53.50 |
| Ambedkar Nagar | 54.29 | 54.29 |
| Bahraich | 41.12 | 46.85 |
| Kaiserganj | 41.10 | 55.20 |
| Shrawasti | 43.06 | 43.06 |
| Gonda | 45.18 | 50.97 |
| Domariyaganj | 49.21 | 57.44 |
| Basti | 49.26 | 51.91 |
| Sant kabir Nagar | 47.29 | 47.29 |
| Maharajganj | 55.63 | 61.38 |
| Gorakhpur | 44.27 | 53.50 |
| Kushi Nagar | 50.84 | 50.84 |
| Deoria | 45.40 | 45.40 |
| Bansgaon | 39.07 | 48.49 |
| Lalganj | 43.62 | 50.97 |
| Azamgarh | 44.64 | 53.45 |
| Ghosi | 45.23 | 45.23 |
| Salempur | 39.28 | 39.28 |
| Ballia | 40.37 | 51.26 |
| Jaunpur | 45.97 | 54.34 |
| Machhlishahr | 41.00 | 51.37 |
| Ghazipur | 50.43 | 50.43 |
| Chandauli | 46.41 | 46.41 |
| Varanasi | 42.61 | 42.61 |
| Bhadohi | 43.39 | 43.39 |
| Mirzapur | 52.18 | 60.86 |
| Robertsganj | 49.30 | 53.16 |
| 48.28 | 54.71 | |
| Orissa | ||
| Bargarh | 69.65 | 69.65 |
| Sundargarh | 61.43 | 61.43 |
| Sambalpur | 64.90 | 64.90 |
| Keonjhar | 70.48 | 70.48 |
| Mayurbhanj | 70.27 | 70.27 |
| Balasore | 70.29 | 70.29 |
| Bhadrak | 67.71 | 67.71 |
| Jajpur | 66.59 | 66.59 |
| Dhenkanal | 66.74 | 66.74 |
| Bolangir | 70.11 | 70.11 |
| 67.82 | 67.82 | |
| India avg * | 52.63 | 58.12 |
