Why the BJP faces an uphill battle next general elections...

The recent U.P. poll results have come somewhat as a jolt to the BJP. UP sends 85 seats to the 543 member Lok Sabha and is thus the key swing state. Here, people have favoured local politicians irrespective of how corrupt they are. The face saving explanation from the BJP (and indeed the CONgress) has been that people voted for the best alternative replacement to Mayawati and we did not instil confidence that we would win.

The scary explanation is that people are turning parochial and voting their own, almost back to the dark ages of caste-ism. A less scary explanation is accepting the one by the BJP and CONgress. Even assuming the second explanation to be correct, BJP facing an uphill task in 2014 (or is it 2012?) elections.

Politicians are a rare breed of individuals who are driven solely by greed for money and power, some might say. If this is true, then ‘ideology’ is nothing more the thin veil than hides the ugly nakedness underneath. If the BJP is unable to assert its electoral supremacy, there is no reason why parties such as the Janata Dal (United) of Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav will stick with it. Similarly, the Akali Dal may decide to break away. These local outfits have never stopped dreaming of a grand third front which will represent local interests and IMHO be little more than a jirga of the sort we see in the wild north west regions of Pakistan and in Afghanistan. Short of another CONgress government, there can be nothing worse for India. Nitish appears to fancy himself as the Prime Minister, so does Jayalalitha, so does Biju Patnaik to name a few that immediately come to mind. There can be no stability where a clear leader does not exist.

The BJP is clearly contributing to the issue by its own ego clashes and leadership issues. The tallest leader in the party is clearly Narendra Modi, but Nitin Gadkari and his band of merry men (and women?) are doing their utmost to insult Modi. Narendra bhai was also deliberately kept away from campaigning in all election states (and also Bihar when hustings were underway there). I have little doubt that he alone could have converted 50 seats for the BJP, but Nitin in all is wide wisdom has chosen to put ego in front of the country. Which isn’t surprising, given my base assumption of politicians being a rare breed indeed.

So BJP is not going to be a serious contender in Bihar, where Nitish will take over as many seats as he can from their coalition and may even contest separately when the time comes. Punjab with the reduced tally of the national party faces the same issue. So where does the BJP compete on its on terms and with some sort of a toe-hold in the state? I have identified the following: Goa (2), Gujarat (26), Haryana (10), Himachal (4), Karnataka (28), Madhya Pradesh (40), Maharashtra (48), Rajasthan (25), Uttar Pradesh (85) and Delhi (7). Therefore, if the BJP still harbours dream of forming a majority government, it has to win 272 seats of the 275, maybe 285 seats that it has atleast some fighting chance in. I am including UP, assuming what Gadkari says is correct ie people vote for a viable alternative, in state elections that alternative was Samajwadi Party so at the national level it will be the BJP. Bihar will be dominated by Nitish, Southern states by local parties, north-eastern states by local parties and Congress. Punjab by the Badals. W. Bengal by Mamta-didi, who baulks at even sharing the dias with BJP at neutral events. Already people in SAD are hinting at trying to make a third front. Nitish appears as if he is almost out of the door (Sharad Yadav virtually distanced himself from the NDA already). We all know Mamta is a loose canon who feels strait-jacketed in the Congress-led UPA.

The likelihood of BJP making it to even 200 seats after competing in 275-odd is slim at best. BJP has what…116 seats in the Lok Sabha now? If things continue in this vein, it will be reduced to below 100 for sure in the next elections. Even if the BJP still manages to become the biggest party in the NDA (assuming the NDA still does exist) its margin with no.2 will be much slimmer and its room to get its policy and ideology through non-existent.

It is perhaps time for BJP to take a leaf out of Rahul Gandhi’s book and instead of concentrating on ridiculing him, start to build a credible base in even ‘friendly’ states where it seems to have become lazy and left winning up to the coalition partner (Punjab being the case in point). To be fair, BJP had decided to go it alone in UP and that was an eye opener for it, lets hope it learns fast and builds a base again before its partners that are firmly behind it now, stab it in the back.

Election results have India on a razor's edge?

A vacuum always gets filled, is colloquially considered an immutable law of physics. And it’s so true in public life as well, as recently witnessed in the state elections in India. The bigger question is “who fills it?” The nearest available alternative, Indian public seems to say.

I believe that while a trend of preferring local leaders over national o...nes has been noticed, its import is lost on most analysts. National parties are missing the wood for the trees in trying to justify why they did so badly in states where they did not have a local leader. Atleast the Congress party has a reason, it’s incredibly corrupt and inept. The BJP does not even have that fig leaf and would do well to wake up and smell the proverbial coffee.

The people’s verdict to prefer a local leader over a national one, while desirable in many respects, also has a hint of caste-ism of a higher order. Politicians do what it takes to get them elected, we all know that. So how long is it before they being to wonder. “if my local-ness, is what gets me elected, why should I give a damn about the nation?”. This will reflect adversely in intra-country trade, in taxation, in levels of development and in incredibly irresponsible budgets leading to wholesale bankruptcy. Also, there will be no national leadership in Delhi, just a bunch of narrow-minded local satraps too busy looking after themselves than the nation.

If most states have a leadership like this, the national fabric of the country will undoubtedly be weakened. Already long decades of socialist, Congress rule have ensured that no single ‘national identity’ exists for India. India stands at a very delicate line between order and anarchy, democracy and revolution, Indian-ness and dismemberment. If the BJP is unable to remove its defeatist attitude, the lard surrounding it, the infighting and the greed for power, and its internal egos the country will slip into parochialism. What else can happen if the last nationalist party is unable to rise above itself when the occasion demands it?!

This is a sin we cannot afford especially when all constitutional institutions, the police, and armed forces have been systematically weakened over the last 7-8 years. The time to project a strong national leader is now and the BJP should grasp this moment. If the country slips into a loose arrangement of states, BJP alone will be responsible.
 

Whats reluctance got to do with it?

I find it surprising that all of Congress' popular leaders have been projected as reluctant to lead. I dont know about Indira Gandhi, but perhaps she was also projeected as an obedient daughter reluctantly taking up her fathers' duties?

I know Rajiv Gandhi was projected like this, son not wanting power, but thrust into the national arena and finally agreeing to lead this country out of sheer magn...animity for its poor people.

I know Sonia Gandhi was projected like this. Desh ki bahu, not wanting power, does everyone remember all the CONgress' MP's lining up first at her door and then making speeches one by one in the parliament wasting the tax payers money. I remember Govinda's speech: aapke netrutva mein matrutva hain. Not sure she understood, but then again stranger things have happened.

Rahul Gandhi's entry into politics was on expected lines. He was expected to take the gaddi just like Mukesh Ambani was after Dhirubhai. This took away his chance to be the 'reluctant'leader in the image of his brilliant family members. Perhaps this was the reasong for his failure (amongst many,many, many others)?

Now I see the CONgress spin machine and the 'free' and 'independent' media is projecting Priyanka Gandhi as the reluctant leader. Only there to help her brother handling the responsibilities of home and taking her of her husband and children like a good Indian bahu. I am waiting for the lines to come up outside her house begging her to lead the CONgress. If the 'reluctance' factor has anything to do with the Gandhi victories (and it may because God knows I cant see any other positives),Priyanks many just end up heading the next Indian govt.

 

There is a simple (hence possibly wrong) answer for this studied projection of the first family. It is to do with their understanding of one vital bit the Indian culture. We place the value of sacrifice above all else. The Rai Bahadur's and Sir's and other such title holders during the British Raj are vilified but people who gave their life to the freedom struggle with nothing to show for it are glorified. This not a recent phenomenon, Lord Ram who gave up the world to honour his father's wish is glorified. His brother Bharat who ruled, but reluctantly, and as a steward, is glorified. Karna and Eklavya who gave up divine protection and his right thumb respectively are glorified as is Harishchandra as is Buddha as is Mahavira. The Congress has this pulse of the public and the public has little time for someone who wants to barge into positions of power. It almost seems orchastrated how each member of the first family is cajoled into taking power (with no responsibility) and wielding it as they see fit. Its about time India sees the reality, that only TRUE sacrifice is to be honoured, not a well dramatised sequence for mass consumption.