UPA pulls off another one again!

While I remain a staunch opponent of the CONgress led UPA on ethical grounds, I cannot help but wonder at their political finesse. Today, Mamta Banerjee pulled out of the government and media channels are debating on how the CONgress can try and keep power in the government. This is another thing that amazes me, how the mainstream media (MSM) manages to miss the point and not have a genuinely independent thought ever.

What my take is this (and I may be wrong, but atleast its an independent view), the CONgress wants the government to fall. The reason being that it knows that is a very good chance that the government would fall mid-term anyway given the myriad scams and cases filed against senior CONgress ministers and members. In this case, how could the CONgress face the electorate again?! It would be disgraced in front of its electorate and wont be able to ask for votes convincingly.

So what does it do? Its gets its two coalition partners who are also from states where the CONgress has no electoral presence and wont be losing anything. It says to TMC and DMK, that we will take several unpopular decisions that will give you a valid reason to pull the plug on the government. The government will then fall and you can ask for votes next election in your state saying that you are poor friendly and we will ask for votes in other states on the plank of ‘we were reform friendly and allies stopped us’.  I know there is no news on DMK, but this is my assessment that there will be…give it another week or two.

This way the CONgress gets to change the narrative from a government falling under the weight of its own corruption to a brave government that was martyred on the hallowed altar of reforms. MSM which is always catering to the government’s whims and fancies (in the view of some) will be more than glad to support this narrative. As the CONgress Home Minister alluded, they view people as having a shorter memory than goldfish and will then vote for a reform focussed government having forgotten the massive scams that were perpetrated. The TMC and DMK can always join forces with the CONgress after elections and justify their volte face by saying they needed to keep ‘communal’ forces out. J

There cant be any other script in my mind, other than the above, for the following reason:

FDI decisions. The manner in which the decisions were taken suggests that the government never intended to actually pass the Bills at all. In the first place, why were the FDI proposals mooted immediately after the monsoon session of the Lok Sabha was in progress, why not during it? Knowing the opposition of the parties to it, what did the government hope to achieve by these FDI proposals, the benefits of either would be only after years, if any benefits exist at all, so there is no immediate benefit in electoral or fiscal terms. So why risk the ire of its key ally (TMC) without any corresponding benefit that I can see.

TMC response. TMC’s press conference was pretty scathing. Mamta didi covered a lot of ground and has made her position almost non-negotiable. This is very uncharacteristic of a politican. So she has made her mind up to leave, in other words she is in the know that the CONgress is not going to come up with any serious counter proposal. Her statement on readind Friday’s namaz before tendering her resignation and about how Friday is a holy day and even referring to Friday as Jummawar and not Shukrawar is significant and will provide the ‘secular’ underpinning she needs when she joins hands with CONgress again after next general elections, like I said above.

So I conclude, that this is only confirmation for my long held belief that India is heading for a mid-term poll. But I am amazed by the devilish intelligence of the CONgress that it has managed to change vice into virtue and convert the narrative from being a government that fell because of corruption to a government that fell because it was ‘reform oriented’. A confirmation of this theory for me would be DMK breaking away from the Congress at some point soon. I just hope the citizens of India can see through this game plan of the UPA and vote for honesty and not for spin.

 

This is a work of imagination. Just a story, not meant to hurt, judge or insult anyone. Its a point of view that is possibly wrong. So take it with a pinch of salt and dont riot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The esoteric meaning behind the origins of Lord Ganesh

This blog was prompted by a recent discussion that I overheard which suggested that the story of Lord Ganesh’s origins is highly violent and does not teach the right values for our children. While I do not agree with this ill-held belief at all (in any case this is not meant to be a children’s fairy tale!), I was not in a position to protest then and have decided to write it here just as Sri Ganesh Chaturthi is about to be celebrated.

Let us first examine how the story is traditionally told. There are several versions and variations of the story, the most popular being from the Shiva Puraan. While the details may defer, let me quickly lay out the gist of the story here (which is likely common in all versions) and use it to explain the esoteric meaning of the story as it occurred to me.

The story goes that Ma Parvati (Lord Shiva’s wife) was distressed because she did not have anyone who was loyal only to her. After all their son, Lord Kartikeya’s loyalty was split between both his parents and that loyalty of all of Shiva’s entourage was first for him. So she decided to create a son who is loyal first to her. So she scrubbed the dirt off her body and created the image of a child and being the Devi, she breathed life into it. Shiva was did not know this.

Then one day, when Ma was going for a bath, she asked her newly created son to guard the door for her and let no one enter. When Lord Shiva came back he was surprised to see a young lad barring his way. Try as he might, cajole as he might, the young Ganesh would not let him in. Shiva, eventually flew into a rage and asked Indra and all the gods to attack and destroy this child who has dared to stop him. All the elements and weapons were thrown at the child but he fended them off with ease, still barring the door. Finally Lord Shiva himself uses his choice weapon, the trident, and lops the child’s head off. To pacify Parvati, Lord Shiva replaces the child’s head with that of a baby elephant, and thus is born Lord Gaj-anana (elephant faced  one).

The esoteric meaning of the same is as follows:

The Hindu way of viewing the world is that everything is the same substance, vibrating at different frequencies. The world exists because of the play between reality and maya, truth and illusion or Purush and Devi.

When someone is said to achieve enlightenment, he/she has broken through the maya and sees the world as it really is, beyond the usual five senses. Enlightenment is only possible through various types of yoga that pushes the Kundalini Shakti (the devi) that lies coiled at the base of our spine, to the top of our head when it unites with the Purusha or Shiva, resulting in the yogi getting enlightened.

The path between the base of our spine and the head happens only when yogic processes are able to unblock three channels in the spine. Hindus see the spine as the inverted figure 8 with the hollow on the left called Ida, the hollow on the right called Pingala and the meeting point called Sushumna. In fact these channels are often times depicted as a trident.

Along the path there are seven chakras which are centres in our energy body. Yogis tell of 112 chakras in our body but these seven along the spine are the principal ones. Kundalini needs to rise from below the first charka (mool adhara) to the top of the highest chakra (sahasrara). Important to note that Lord Ganesh is considered the master of the first chakra and Lord Shiva is known as the first yogi or the Adiyogi.

Now let us examine the traditional story in light of the above paragraph:

So Ganesha is created from dirt off the Devi/ Shakti’s body. The dirt represents the most superficial level of maya. It is pure delusion or falsehood. Ego is a characteristic of a deluded person. The young child guards the door to Parvati just like Mooladhara guards the Kundalini. Just like the child prevents Shiva from meeting Parvati, the Mooladhara prevents the kundalini from meeting the Sahasrara. All the elements and deities are unable to break the child just like all externalities in the world will not be able to purify the Mooladhara and persuade it to give Kundalini passage. Finally, the Adiyogi, uses his trident, or purified channels (Ida, Pingala and Sushumna) to remove the head off the arrogant child. The Head itself is a significant thing, it denotes ego. When it is said he removed the head the allusion is to a yogi using his channels to break his ego, his ego of identification with his body or identification with any sort of Maya. The replacing of an elephant’s head is also significant as since time immemorial, the elephant is a symbol of knowledge as wisdom. So Shiva destroys the ego and replaces it wisdom, allowing the union of Shakti and Purusha to take place and thus allowing enlightenment.

So in effect the story is like this: A person ego is is his biggest hurdle in his spiritual progress. His worldly activities and siddhi’s cannot help him unite his kundalini and the Sahasrara. He uses yoga to purify the three subtly channels in his spine and uses these channels to break through the Mooladhara (which Lord Ganesh rules) and welcome the Kundalini to higher planes.

So the story of Lord Ganesha’s birth has a deep esoteric meaning attached to it and is in fact the story of a yogi’s spiritual progress. It is our weakness and our deficiency and lack of diligence that we are unable to see the subtlety in it. If a layman mistakes a piece of diamond to be a piece of glass, the problem does not lie with the diamond. I hope people read and understand the underlying philosophy behind the story and behind yogic processes instead of dismissing our great epics as mere ‘stories’.

 

(My thanks to my Sadhguru and to all gurus before him, without whose inspiration the esoteric meaning above would never occurred to me).

India Presidential Drama

The Indian Presidential drama has played out over the last few days and that is continuing to be played out is seeing Indian politics at its worst (or best, depending on how you look at it). As Ravi Shastri would have put it: In the end, politics was the real winner. The game of shadow boxing, thinking four steps ahead and hint dropping is at its peak, it would seem.

This is how I read the situation. At the outset I was 100% confident that Sonia would not nominate Pranab as the Presidential candidate of her own free will (with one exception: She expected a mid-term election and did not want to antagonise Pranab). And I stick by this conviction, had the game not been changed (which I will discuss presently).  

Why not Pranab?

The reason for my conviction is rooted in the assumption that Sonia would not like to have anyone with a relatively independent mind in any post which could target her, her family or Congress leaders.

Pranab (unfortunately for her, perhaps) is intelligent, a past master in Indian-style politics, has somewhat of a spine and has a beef to pick with some senior Congress ministers and Sonia’s confidantes. Regular news readers will remember Pranab’s chagrin at being spied upon by P Chidambaram, the Home Minister, after bugs were discovered in Pranab’s office. Pranab will also remember how he was kept out negotiations with Team Anna (or was it Baba Ramdev) and coming to know the agreement with everyone else in the Parliament, a clear rebuff. He will also remember how he was made to retract his signed statement that placed the blame of the 2G scam squarely on Chidambaram’s shoulder. All this must be deeply insulting for a man who has given his career for the benefit for the Gandhi family. He must also know that none of the above instances could be possible without the orders of the Congress Supremo. 

Pranab was the smokescreen

Congress which had heaped a Pratibha Patil could not pull out another name like that given its scam-ridden tenure. It had to first get a carte-blanche from its UPA allies before it announced its Presidential candidate. So with the help of the media, Congress floated the name of Pranab as its candidate. It is noteworthy that at no time did any senior leader of the party, much less Soniaji herself, did formally announce Pranab’s name. As expected, its equally-corrupt allies were prompt in authorising Sonia Gandhi under the Pranab smokescreen. Later on when the name of Sonia’s butler was announced, the allies could defend their ‘helplessness’ having already authorised Sonia. Soon the media would ensure that this episode was forgotten and another hand maid(en) would rule Raisina Hill. 

Who did Sonia really want?

Basically she would have been happy with anyone who did not have the guts to stand up to her. That opens up the entire Congress Party to choice and so it was more of a bouquet than any rigid qualification system. I believe even PA Sangma (PAS) was (is) one of her candidates, given he is a non entity in the rest of the county and has no mass following except in one state. I will discuss PAS later.

But Sonia decided to make use of this opportunity to ‘kick’ Manmohan Singh (MMS) upstairs. There are two reasons for this: 

a) He has presided over arguably the most corrupt government ever, anytime in the world. Removing him will give people the illusion of action and frankly make people hate the Congress a little bit less. Makes it easier for the media to get the public to forget the various scams once the head is out and some cabinet reshuffling can be done.

b) Manmohan may turn out to be the Professor Snape of Indian politics. There is a growing belief among a section of political observers that he is actually helping bring down the corrupt coterie in the congress, including allegedly the family itself, by his activities. Consider this, almost all the leaks (2G Pranabs letter, VK Singhs letter, Antrix-Devas papers etc) have come out of the PMO and the media has hardly broken any scandal on its own. There is a feeling that perhaps he even helps Dr. Subramaniam Swamy’s crusade for justice leading to Dr.Swamy never targeting Manmohan directly.

Pranab's dream comes in the way

However, thanks to the persistent rumours about Pranab’s candidature, that Sonia did not deny (she couldn’t, after all that WAS the plan!), and some well-schemed prodding by the opposition, Pranab himself began coveting President-ship. After all, he was PM material now relegated to reporting to his junior (Manmohan Singh). Being persistently denied what was rightfully his, Pranab now finally had something to crown the end of his political innings. He is anyway not going to contest elections again and would rather ride into the sunset donning the President’s hat than be remembered as ‘a cabinet minister’ in the most corrupt government and as the Finance Minister saw the near-demise of the Indian economy. Pranab began to believe that he was (or atleast deserved to be) the Congress’ Presidential candidate. Now, THIS Sonia did NOT factor.

The pawns

When Sonia realised that she would have to drop Pranab and replace him with Manmohan, she knew she had to shoot from someone else’s shoulders. After all Congress cant afford antagonising Pranab, he knows too much. So Sonia chose two people to manipulate toward this end.

The first was Mamta Banerjee (MB), the explosive, moody chief minister of W.Bengal. Mamta has no love lost for Pranab. MB is ex-Congress stock who fought for the Party for years in West Bengal, the bastion of communists in India. In fact it is rumoured that she left the Congress in the mid-90s to form the TMC only because of Pranab’s deep friendship with the communists that was resulting in her efforts against them coming to naught. Additionally, she has been long demanding a financial package for W.Bengal which Pranab has been consistently stalling. So using Mamta against Pranab would not raise any suspicions.

The second was Mulayam Singh Yadav (MSY), the calculating and allegedly extremely corrupt chief minister of Uttar Pradesh (UP). Rumour has it that he has several damning cases pending with the CBI which are used as a ‘stick’ by the Congress everytime they want him to fall in line. It is well known that after several flip flops, Mulayam always sides with the Congress when it matters (nuclear deal e.g.) and everyone can guess the reason why.

So it was clear to Sonia that Mamta’s character and Mulayam’s alleged lack of it make them the best pawns to use for this operation. 

This was the master plan *

Sonia talked to Mulayam Singh Yadav (MSY), the head of the Samajwadi Party (SP) to put into motion her master plan that would achieve multiple objectives. She asked him to talk to Mamata Banerjee (MB), head of Trinamool Congress Party (TMC) of West Bengal, to plan a ‘rebellion’ against the UPA. Given her long misgivings about the Congress, Pranab and perhaps even the Gandhis, Mamta would readily agree. So Mulayam and Mamta got together and hatched a plan. 

The plan within the plan – Phase I

Sonia invited Mamata for a meeting in 10 Jan Path and possibly said something like this. “I will guarantee you whatever package you want, if you go out and say that you insisted on Manmohan Singh’s name as President”. This way, Sonia could have feigned helplessness in front of Pranab and said something like “look these are difficult times, we are facing multiple pressures, why should we risk a break in the UPA now? Manmohan Singh is anyway the symbol of massive corruption, this gives him a face-saving exit and I will promote you to the post of Deputy PM. You know Mamata is extracting her long standing vendetta against you, and I am really helpless against his. I have nothing to do with this but you should forget your Presidential dreams and take one of the chin for the Congress Party”. 

The plan within the plan – Phase II

Mamta met journalists immediately outside 10JP and said Sonia recommended two names, Pranab and Hamid Ansari (even causal observers know that Hamid is nowhere close to Pranab in stature). This must have caused massive consternation to Pranab who till now was perhaps given to believe that he was Congress’ ONLY candidate. He immediately knew that was a lie and that Sonia was throwing other names, much less qualified names to partners. To top this, Mamata went to a meeting with Mulayam Singh, whom she perceived to be a partner in this, and said that they jointly have three names: Abdul Kalam (her real intent), Manmohan Singh (as she had promised Sonia) and Somnath Chatterjee (a diversion).

The plan within the plan (goes slightly awry) – Phase III

The Congress made a big show about being muddled, not knowing what to do, not having expected this turn of events at all. Which in itself is surprising given that Mamta had told reporters that Sonia knows that I am going be announcing the two names (Pranab and Hamid) outside.

But, this was also where the plan went a little awry. While Sonia had expected Mamta to take Manmohan’s name and give an ultimatum to her, which was what Sonia wanted, Mamta took three names. If Sonia would have chosen Manmohan from those three, it would have looked like she has no faith in the PM, causing the opposition to call for a trust vote or try and pull the government down. It was a media circus that Sonia wanted to avoid. This caused her to change her plan a little bit, she was now forced to defend Manmohan Singh, basically ruling him out for President nomination. Which in a way was good, as Manmohan Singh is the best PM India can get under the UPA (and for the reasons stipulated earlier).

Had things gone to plan and Mamta and Mulayam insisted on just Manmohan, this would have been the end of it, with Pranab’s hope dashed for a believable excuse. 

The plan changes

Now the plan needed to be changed. While there was no choice now for the Congress but to prop Pranab up for President-ship. But after the events of the first day, Sonia could not just flip, she had to ensure that Pranab believed that he had coerced her to change. Otherwise, he would never trust the Congress. That is, in his mind unless he believed he knew WHY the Congress changed it decision, he would not believe they were serious about getting him elected.

Congress cleverly kept quiet for a day and waited for Pranab to come to 10JP and vent his anger. And vent, he did. Early next morning he got in touch with Sonia and used some of the many cards he has at his disposal to coerce her into defending his candidature. Maybe one of the cards was the illegal account holder list received from the LGT Bank, Lichtenstein which Pranab has so far managed to not disclose? It was after this orchestrated tongue lashing (Pranab was himself unaware of this), Sonia sent one of her men Dwivedi to defend Manmohan Singh as the PM, and eventually after a big show of discussion, announced Pranab as the candidate. 

Plan B

Now the plan is: Prop Pranab as the Congress’ official candidate, but ensure that the other guy (whom Sonia likes) wins.

As originally planned, Mulayam abruptly stopped supporting Mamta. This gets rid of the most difficult ally of the UPA, without the Congress officially throwing it out. This also brings Mulayam closer to the Congress and more wedded to its fate. In fact it was this betrayal of Mamta by Mulayam that suggested that the entire drama was coordinated. Why? – I will discuss later.

The replacement killers

Now there is no way that Sonia was going to support Kalam. One, he is as savvy and spine-ful as Pranab, if not more. Second, he is the one who stopped Sonia from becoming the PM in 2004 and if Dr. Subramanian Swamy is to be believed will even stop Rahul Gandhi from the same. In any case, the opposition wanted Kalam but were unable to convince him that he would win. As such Kalam excused himself from the contest and in came PA Sangma (PAS). 

PA Sangma

I have briefly touched upon PAS earlier in this narrative and indicated my feeling that he is actually a Sonia candidate. The reason for this is manifold. PAS is a Christian from the north-east of India, that is a key fan club of the current Gandhi family. Additionally, after quitting the Congress party on Sonia’s foreign origin issue, PAS has apologised to her for it and even is part of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) that is propping the UPA government up. Also, PAS’ very young daughter (in her 20s) was taken into the Union Cabinet of India by Sonia highlighting Sonia’s affections for PAS and his family. All this leads me to believe that PAS was always Sonia’s plan B with respect to candidature.

Recently, in-line with Sonia’s plan, NCP and Sangma made a big show about how NCP does not want it to contest against Pranab. After all, wouldn’t the plan be obvious if UPA fielded two candidates?! Sangma quit the NCP in a huff and the NCP accepted his resignation without any ado. But DESPITE THIS seeming fight between the two, Sangma’s daughter, Agatha, continues to be part of the Union Cabinet as a NCP nominee. While she may be moved out temporarily at some point under some obscure Party disciplinary issue, the game is now obvious for anyone to see: Daughter in Sonia’s cabinet (for no achievements that are known to the masses), while father revolts against Sonia? Is that even possible. This cements my belief that Sangma is one the candidates Sonia would like to see as President instead of Pranab.

This would also explain Sangma’s confidence in his serious fight based on the support of just two regional parties: Jayalalitha’s AIADMK and Naveen Patnaiks Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which collectively have just about 4-8%% of the vote.  

Formation of the third front quashed

NDA judiciously had kept its mouth shut on the entire thing. Especially, some BJP leaders known for shooting their mouths off were reined in. This would limit the Party’s humiliation should events unfold as unexpected by them. While NDA, especially the BJPs inclination towards Kalam was understood and appreciated by everyone, Kalam’s withdrawal threw a spanner in the works. NDA was clearly reluctant to support Sangma.

This was another (perhaps unexpected) benefit of fielding Sangma to the Congress. It squarely divided the polity into three parts, first, that would support Pranab, second, that would support Sangma and third, that WAS supporting Kalam but was now undecided and reluctant to support Sangma. The group supporting Sangma, would in future be recognised as the third front and would opportunity to various regional parties and currently unaffiliated small parties a chance to form a large political block. This would dilute the nationalist, Hindutva agenda and would result in votes being split three way giving the Congress a chance to form UPA III, a chance that at this moment is non-existent. This is the brilliance of Sonia Gandhis plan, multiple objectives with one scheme!

Thanks to the presence of Dr. Subramanian Swamy, NDAs non-existing political acumen was given a massive, massive boost. I am sure Dr.Swamy read the situation as it is and identified the formation of the third front. To prevent the splitting of the vote, Dr. Swamy cleverly convinced the BJP to support Sangma. It is possible that Narendra Modi also had a big part to play in this, but Dr. Swamy was clearly the main man of this operation. What this did is, it cut the idea of a grand ‘third front’ in the bud. Today AIADMK, BJD and BJP is the block that’s supporting Sangma, not some ‘third front’. In fact, this aligns these regional satraps (also good personal friends of Narendra Modi) closer with NDA. It is quite possible that even Mamta Banerjee who has clearly been made a political laughing stock out of by the Congress, will support Sangma and become closer aligned with the NDA.  

Why is Nitish Kumar of JD(U) angry?

It is well known that Nitish wants to become the PM of India. But as a member of a smaller faction in the NDA, he knows that he has no chance of getting the nomination. His outside chance was the clear, qualified and desired candidature of Narendra Modi would be quashed by the NDA elders due to his ‘Hindu’ image in the media house’s minds. He kept threatening BJP with separation from NDA regularly by asking Modiji to not visit Gujarat, returning aid checks sent by Gujaratis (VERY petty), kept harping on the need for a ‘secular’ PM and what not as methods to occupy the mindspace of the people in BJP and the media and the ‘secular’ intelligentsia.

However, Modi’s recent demonstration of his clout within the BJP (also see my blog on why BJP has no alternative than to anoint Narendra Modi as PM candidate), convinced Nitish that he stood no outside chance at all in the NDA. So what does he do? If he quits and goes to UPA, then he wont even have the chance at PM-ship that he has now, given that his surname isn’t Gandhi and wont work as his steward. So his only alternative was the creation of the third front that could use his face as a PM candidate. By scuttling the idea of this front itself, NDA has ensured Nitish is reined in. No wonder he is angry and asking his men to keep firing off against BJP and Modiji on an almost daily basis.

The best outcome for BJP in his scenario is that Nitish actually does split even under the current scenario. If the vote swing in its favour is any indicator during the last elections, BJP will likely do much better than JD(U) at the hustings. Moreover, with Nitish out, I have no doubt UPA will move in to take him up. Even on his reduced strength (ie without BJP/RSS support) Nitish will be a much for formidable partner in Bihar than UPA’s current Laloo Yadav of the RJD. Laloo has just 3-4 seats from Bihar and is a virtual non-entity except for his rabble rousing ability whenever UPA needs it. The prospect of Nitish leaving NDA must be giving Modi, Bihar BJP and even Congress sound sleep at night, even as it keeps Laloo wide awake, clenching his bedsheet or chatai in deep fear.

So what happens from here?

Given that NDA did not have numbers and with some of its members (JD-U and Shiv Sena) pledging support to Pranab, I think it has done a decent job of the situation, thanks to Dr. Swamy and Modiji.

Sonia who would have discounted Pranab at the first stage itself and rid herself of an headache of a PM Manmohan Singh, is not forced to hang on to him as PM and is forced to publically back Pranab as President. Where she has won is that she managed to get Sangma propped up as a rival candidate. She will ensure that he gets enough dissident cross voting from her party and that of her allies (esp SP and NCP) so that he wins. This helps in cutting Pranab to size and at same time having someone like Sangma as President, who is a bit more ‘reasonable’ that Pranab would have been. The shock of Pranab losing may even result in a trust vote and depending on how badly Chidambaram fares in the 2G case coming up sometime in July, this government could well be on its way out unexpectedly soon.

The failure of formation of third front will see NDA getting consolidated and Nitish Kumar going the Laloo way. If he is able to work at it, then he may still remain relevant in Bihar, but that state is he graveyard of many politicians and does not usually give anyone second chances. The nominal party head Sharad Yadav will recognise the situation and has already asked Nitish’s cohorts to stop making noises against the BJP. He realises that Nitish may have a short time to political expiry and he had better latch on to the BJP bandwagon to ensure his own survival. He has no independent constituency of his own and depends on Nitish to get him votes. He also realises that if Nitish joined the third front or the UPA, his own utility will be at a naught leaving him stranded. So when push comes to shove he will strive to keep JD-U within the NDA fold.

In fact, its was on twitter the other day (with a pinch of salt please), that when BJP workers carried Modi’s posters in Bihar just a day before and dared JD-U to pull out of alliance with BJP, Nitish was apparently sweating in his AC cabin seeing Modi’s stature.

So in summary:

Sangma will be next President in a ‘surprise’ upset.

Pranab may eat humble pie and choose to vanish without a trace or come out all guns blazing against Sonia as he is no doubt going to figure out whats happened. In which case he would be a serious, serious, serious threat to the Congress. But his reaction depends on how compromised he personally is.

Nitish will accept his fate as being limited to Bihar, if that. BJP will re-emerge as power if he leaves, while RJD will vanish without trace. If Nitish stays with BJP, he will be significantly humbler than before.

Dr.Swamy and Narendra Modi will emerge as power blocks in BJP that appears to be starved for strategic thinking.

NDA will add three parties to its fold or atleast garner ‘outside’support from one or more of them.

Mid term elections before end of this year.

* The most important question: Why did I expect this exercise to be Congress’ plan at all?

To the casual onlooker, the Congress looked to be meandering aimlessly at first and reacting to the situation. Which is very uncharacteristic of its political acumen. But the biggest give-away for me was Mulayam’s flip-flop.

Consider this, why did Mulayam revolt against Congress in partnership with Mamata in the first place? If we believe that he back tracked from the revolt due to the CBI cases against him, then did he not know about those cases 48 hours earlier when he was doing joint press conferences with Mamata? Of course he did!

If we argue, that yes, he did know of the cases but thought that UPA as a government would fall very quickly and that it would not give CBI enough time to act against him. So then I would argue, if that was the case, then it doesn’t explain him backtracking, ie if he believed government is going to fall then why obey its CBI-laced diktats at all?!

The third reason could be that Mulayam always intended to betray Mamata and only did this drama to alienate her from the UPA, just so that he becomes more valuable to the UPA. But surely Mulayam knows how big a dent in his credibility he has taken leaving Mamata at the altar, figuratively speaking, by behaving the shocking way her has flip flopping every few hours. Who will trust him now?! His alleged lack of ethics have been exposed for all now. And all this for what? To ingratiate himself to a Congress that is most likely to be routed next elections? He doesn’t need them in his bastion (Uttar Pradesh), so why risk his political credibility on what is widely viewed as a sinking ship?! Just doesn’t make sense. For whatever you may say about Mulayam, you cannot doubt his ability to look after his self interests!

In fact, I could not come up with any single credible, rational, logical explanation on why Mulayam revolted in the first place at all! It is from this that the germ of an idea formed in my mind that his revolt against the Congress candidate was engineered in the first place. Why would Mulayam himself engineer the death of his credibility in Delhi? It followed that he was forced to do this. Who can force him to do this? Who else? The people who wield control over the CBI which has the power to investigate (or put on the back burner) cases against him.

Disclaimer:this is clearly a work of fiction and a made-up account of what might have happened behind the scenes. Some true events are included but by no means is this intended to be a true account. No intent to offend or malign anyone, just pure speculation from someone who weaved a story trying (unsuccessfully perhaps) to incorporate all events that have happend in a single cohesive narrative. This is for entertainment purposes, so take it with a pinch of salt.

Why is “matter is subjudice” an invalid defence?

Everytime a politician uses the excuse "matter is sub-judice" to duck a difficult question, the journalist asking the question should ask "So?"

The whole concept of not commenting on matter that are under consideration of a court is redundant ever since the jury system was abolished in India. The jury consisted of ordinary people who were not expe...rts in law and were susceptible to be influenced by different noises coming out of talking heads on TV or public statements given by different parties.

Now that the cases are heard by a learned judge and decided by him/ her only, there is no question of using the "matter is subjudice" to not answer a question. They can use any other excuse to duck questions but not answering because "matter is subjudice" is IMHO about as relevant a reason as "My dog has distemper".

The jury system in India was revoked after the famous case of Kawas Maneckshaw Nanawati vs. State of Maharashtra. KM Maneckshaw was a honourable navy officer who killed his best friend Prem Ahuja as Prem was sleeping with Kawas’ wife and when discovered refused to marry “every woman he slept with”. There was a massive support campaign carried on by almost the entire Parsi community in India, led by the famous RK Karanjia who ran the magazine Blitz. Incidentally, Prem Ahuja’s case was represented by a very young Ram Jethmalani.

Due to the sustained sympathy campaign the jury was influenced to say that Nanavati was not guilty. This made it clear how open the jury was to being influenced by whats happening in the world around them and the jury system was scrapped in India after this case in 1959-1962.

While I am sure this had nothing to do with Kavas’ acquittal I find it interesting to mention that:

“Nanavati had moved in the same circles as the Nehru-Gandhi family for many years. He had previously worked as Defence Attaché to V. K. Krishna Menon, while the latter was high commissioner to the United Kingdom, and had grown close to the Nehrus during that time. During the time of his trial and sentencing, Jawaharlal Nehru was Prime Minister of India and his sister, Vijayalakshmi Pandit, was governor of Maharashtra state.” (wikipedia)

Eventually Kavas lost the case in appeal, and Supreme Court held that he was guilty of pre-mediated murder. Personally, I think Kavas’ behaviour was as gentlemanly as can be in the circumstances through the entire tragic episode.

Pick any journalist and ask him why should he agree to an answer like “matter is sub judice” and he/ she will probably not know the reason behind this weasel statement. I wonder what sort of training journalists get if they are not able to counter such statements from people they interview? Genuine question, no sarcasm.

The above post is the the best of my knowledge, please feel free to point out errors in fact and inference in comments. No intent to malign anyone, not subject to legal action.

An irrational fear

As the rush for the Presidential nomination comes into its last lap on this tenth day of June 2012, I am gripped with an irrational fear. Right now, everyone expects Pranab Mukherjee to be nominated as the President candidate from the UPA camp. The chorus has been so shrill that I think even Pranab believes it, it is not difficult to see him suppressing a smile of pleasure whenever quizzed about this issue, but perhaps I am imagining it.

I have long maintained that keeping in line with the policy of the current leadership of the Congress it is virtually impossible for anybody with some independent thought and some spine to be nominated to any post that puts the Congress leadership in its cross-hairs. So there is no way that Pranab (who is already singed by the Congress in the inter-office memo leak scandal) will be put into that position. There is an exception to this in my view and that is, if UPA expects mid-term elections or is planning to call them itself, then Pranab will be nominated. Even then chances are slim.

Now I come to my irrational fear and it is this. Sonia or whoever is advising her is a master politician and manipulator of human emotions in my view. I do not mean this deridingly; this is a must in politics now-a-days, sad as the situation is. Its so far fetched that I am just going to say it and justify it later:

Sonia may nominate LK Advani as the Presidential candidate.

I know. Hold your horses. This is the logic. There are many cogent reasons that can be given to justify LKA’s ascension as the president: veteran politician etc etc. But this will be a political masterstroke that can rend the BJP overnight. BJP simply lacks the intellectual prowess to counter this move, perhaps? Already LKA is seething at being sidelined in the BJP. The NDA government where he was the second most senior leader was notorious in letting the ‘first family’ off in multiple matters. By making him President, Sonia makes him wedded to protecting the family again out of obligation. Makes him closer to the Congress and perhaps may cast a less than generous look to a Narendra Modi headed government formation bid. BJP will have little option but to support, if it doesn’t, then the party will be broken into two camps immediately leaving it less than able to meet the challenges of an election effectively.

Anyway, will not lengthen this further, I have put my worst case scenario across. All the moves and the motivations above are conjecture, imagination and works of fiction. I am merely putting an extreme remote possibility across and expressing my opinion. I believe this is not liable for any sort of legal action.

How Socialism leads to dictatorship? – A Dummies guide

Socialism starts with a welfare state. People enjoy largesse from the government on several things, education, medicines, etc. But they don’t realise that government doesn’t have any money of its own…there is no such thing as ‘public money’. The government funds this largesse by expanding taxes as much as possible. Soon even that money runs out as more schemes are announced and population and their demand increases.

Then the government, whose sole purpose is to stay in power (it almost always is isn’t it?), and, running short of money unable to increase taxes beyond a point, decides to divide the country into a vote-banks. It identified a group that will vote en-bloc and concentrates the spending on just that group. So soon all the people are paying taxes but a small group of people are enjoying the benefits. This leads to a great social divide and both sides become bitter. The vote bank group continues to vote the government into power knowing that it is getting undue benefit at the cost of the country as a whole. At this point the government begins ridiculous spending programmes like for religious festivals of the vote block community etc.

Soon even this amount of money is not enough as the government needs to keep bettering what it spends on its people and especially the vote bank. The spending is categorised as ‘social spend’ to lend it an air of acceptability, respectability, holier-than-thou attitude and even martyrdom. It makes it difficult for the opposition to interrupt. I mean already the opposition guys have sat in opposition for so long they are scared to be seen anti-people. What it really is, is basically bribing a section of the population at the cost of the larger interests of the country to continue to earn votes. This is the point where reservations and Prime Ministerial statements like “religion xyz has first rights to country’s resources” start gathering FAST pace.

Then the government begins deficit financing, ie borrowing money to continue to spend on stupid and irresponsible schemes and appeasement. With people already taxed out and morale at a minimum the loans are never re-paid and the deficits continue to widen. In several years they reach a point where the government needs to borrow money to just pay the interest on its loans. This becomes a domestic debt trap. At this point the government begs other countries for money. This brings to sovereignty of the country into question as other countries begin to have a higher say in how the country should be run and dictate local social policy and may try to even effect demographic changes.

After a point the government is in a financial state beyond repair and pawns important national assets with other countries (India had been in this stage in 1988-1991). As the government has continued to borrow heavily there is no money left for risk takers and businessmen to setup any industry. Now the country is caught up in high debt, low living standards, high unemployment, international servitude and falling GDP.

Now the government faced with the prospect of losing elections and indeed driving the country into bankruptcy decides to take some hard steps. It forms a select committee and empowered committee and what-not committee and devises a ‘master plan’. However the master plan or the plan requires absolute compliance from everyone or else the country will fail (its on the precipice now isn’t it?). For this purpose new civil servants are taken on to monitor progress, the government sets curbs on freedom of speech to avoid dissent, lest the plan not be bought by the gullible public. Newspapers have a civil servant sitting with the editor to ensure that no news item calls the ‘plan’ into doubt. Production quotas are implemented, consumption quotas are implemented and a ration card is given. People’s lives, what they eat, what they study, where they work and everything else is decided by the government. Taxes are raised sky high (India had Income taxe of 97.5% under the Indira government, if I am not mistaken?).

Soon even for small things, people need to get permission of their local civil servant. To get water, food, milk, medicines, doctors appointment, drivers license, gas, fuel, power, buying a house, making changes to a house, school admission, even to drink a pint of beer…virtually everything! Afterall the ‘plan’ is very sensitive and quotas need to be guarded VERY carefully. Plus it’s the patriotic thing to do! This makes a local officer powerful enough to harass literally anyone. Soon he begins to demand favours from people who come to him for permits, soon permits change into little bribe money, soon little bribe money changes to a LOT of bribe money. While the relatively better off can pay, most people cant. This leads a higher social divide where the opposite was the case. The high tax rate begins to incite tax avoidance and people begin to hide money, or send it to swiss banks. This is not difficult since a corrupt civil servant can be found anywhere.

Soon the industrialists who were providing employment and were helping country to grow are bankrupt (no loans, no demand and excessive civil servant interference!) and the government takes over their businesses. Many-a-times a few key industries are taken over and un-strategic industries are left to run at only a nominal profit. India has privatised banking and airline sector at points in history. This creates further fear…the industrialists now decide to pander to government whims, “or else…” they are privatised,, because the ‘plan’ requires it, and it’s the patriotic thing to do.

To ensure compliance by the public the government implements draconian laws and subverts the justice system. All this is still cloaked in the veil of serving the motherland, saving the motherland and patriotism. This makes it difficult for anyone to make a politically correct argument against this. By this time the vote bank community has realised it folly in putting its vote bank credentials (religion, caste, income group, regional identity) ahead of the country, but now sadly its too late.

Now that the administrative and judiciary branches of the country are completely subverted, the government turns its attention to the military. This is one branch that the policy makers badly need to ensure discipline is enforced with a iron fist. After all the grand ‘plan’ is still in intensive care and cant tolerate dissent…and it is the patriotic thing to defend the plan at ALL or ANY cost. So the armed forces are elevated to a great height. It gets unlimited funds for which no accounts are asked for. The army chiefs begin a fiefdom and live the lavish life. No questions asked. In return they squash whatever protests are put up. The deaths and protests are never reported as by now only state owned media remains.

Finally the politician’s attention turns to the legislative bodies. Elections CANT be held in such trying times…the country would never be able to handle the expense…plus if someone else got elected how would the all important ’plan’ be implemented?! No no that wont be right, the ‘plan’ is necessary for the country! Not having elections is the patriotic thing to do. So administration shifts to a small group of people whose authority cannot be challenged. Their credentials are secret and activities even more so. Opposition is brutally quelled and more and more power is centralised. Note that these few people live lavish lifestyles to ensure that they are mentally limber to implement the ‘plan’. This group of self-sacrificing people running the county is called…lets say…”the politburo”.

Now several years have passed and no one really remembers what the plan really was or what it was supposed to achieve. The systems, businesses and economy have been completely destroyed by this point. People are hungry, inflation is high and there is anarchy. Now details of the ‘plan’ are completely forgotten and quelling the growing dissent becomes the priority. After all, any protests or violence may lead to unnecessary deaths of innocent people. So to stop that is the government’s patriotic duty. The army is called onto the streets, even as internal bickering on the best way to handle the situation tears the politburo apart. The members then decide to vest the power to implement the ‘plan’ (this is now just a word…even the original papers are lost in some civil servants file…which is just as well as the plan is hardly applicable to current time anyway) to a powerful leader. Someone who is feared and who would be obeyed. The most likely choice would be either some thug in the current politburo or the army chief who has had long experience in quelling protests. Soon all powers are handed over and either the politburo members are ‘eliminated’ or made irrelevant or just travel to live in Switzerland where their hard earned money of so many years is stashed anyway. Now the country is in dictatorship.

This is how a country moves from socialism to dictatorship in a few years. It is up to people to decide what they want…a free market economy (NOT laissez faire) which survives on mutual respect and profit, where we have maximum governance and minimum government, freedom of speech or do we proceed on a path where perhaps our grand daughters virginity will need to be bartered to some unscrupulous civil servant for a gas connection? Nip socialism in the bud, let all vote bank people know, the largesse they enjoy is the proverbial last supper.


(Of course I am not saying this will always happen or all vote banks will respond or behave in the same way.All I am saying is that IMHO socialism carried to a certain degree has the potentional of being incredibly dictatorial and destructive.)

The Third Front That No One Is Talking About

The country finds itself at crossroads today. We have an incredibly incompetent and allegedly the most corrupt government in power. But at the same time the opposition, especially the BJP, is such that it hardly inspires confidence. My disdain for the current leadership and direction of the BJP is well known thanks to my earlier blogs and I will not waste time on the same. But I will again highlight how Nitin Gadkari seems to be almost childishly blocking Narendra Modi from progressing politically. If there is genuinely an issue with Modiji that makes him a bad choice for PM-ship, then the BJP is doing a really bad job of communicating it to him and its supporters. For now, it is IMHO a clear case of pettiness on the part of BJP’s current leadership coterie. Other points on how BJP seems to be in cahoots with the Congress has already been covered in my last blog post.

Anyway, so for a die-hard nationalist like me, BJP is no longer the patriotic choice versus the Congress at worst, or atleast the margin between the two has been substantially reduced. This brings one to the much publicised, but never realised third-front. I think there is a possibility of a third front formation, but its not like the one that’s traditionally understood, ie a Left led jirga. I think a very sturdy third front can be formed in such a way that will also factor in the concerns I had raised in earlier blog on how regionalism is taking hold in India. The third front will be led by Narendra Modi.

My hypothetical playbook reads thus: Narendra Modi wins a thumping majority in the upcoming Gujarat state elections underlining his development led agenda. Around the same time the courts exonerate Modi from all the false charges being made by the foreign funded NGO milieu. If at that point Nitin and gang continues obstruct Narendra bhai, he will split away from the BJP and bring a lot of like minded people into his fold. His Sadbhavana fasts were nothing more than tests to check out his own political alliances. Here are the people I think who will support Modi (note I don’t think Modiji will opt for the CONgress or any lame third front given his strong RSS-fuelled patriotic credentials):

1)      Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan: She is a firebrand leader and well wedded to a nationalist agenda. She has also been facing problems with Nitin Gadkari who seems to be trying to imbibe Congress culture into the BJP. Rajasthan sends 25 seats to the Lok Sabha and given the current Congress misrule there, she is likely to sweep the state on her own (which she will have to if she splits from the BJP thanks to mismanagement).

2)      BS Yeddyurappa in Karnataka: Currently caught up in corruption cases and a whipping boy for both the BJP and the CONgress. I am not by any means defending any corruption he has done, only pointing out that he has issues with Nitin Gadkari and a mass following. Karnataka sends 28 seats to the Lok Sabha. BSY is also an RSS man and will not want to join Congress just for the sake of power esp given that it’s a sinking ship.

3)      Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab: SAD is one of the few parties that had sent its representatives to Modi’s Sadbhavana yatra. SAD is a dharmic culture based party and will clearly support Modi in an independent bid for PM’s post. Punjab sends 13 seats to the Lok Sabha. Judging from its assembly tally, also likely to sweep polls.

4)      Jayalalitha in TN: Jaya is another leader who had sent her people to Modi’s Sadbhavana rally thus indicating her support. In the view of an long time follower of Indian politics and cinema (with whom I checked), it was Jaya who moved MGR from his path of atheistic/anti-hindu beliefs and thus wont be opposed to the idea of Modi as PM. TN sends 39 seats to the Lok Sabha and is likely to sweep state polls, especially if they are held quickly.

5)      Mayawati in UP: Yes, this is a surprising one but I think Mayawati is too politically astute to oppose Modi. Ideologically she is flexible. Everyone knows how she shifted her slogan from “Tilak tarazoo aur talwar, inko maro joote chaar” to “Haathi nahin Ganesh hain, Brahma, Vishnu, Mahesh hain”. She also has issues with the Congress government and isn’t a visible minority appeaser (dalits being her vote bank) making her a strong candidate to support Modi. Plus I think she may enjoy a good personal equation with Modiji himself. This way she can also been seen to be supporting a third front rather than the Congress or the BJP which helps protect her own constituency (after all Modi isn’t a Brahmin right? He is just highly qualified and capable to run this country). Given the mismanagement by Akhilesh Yadav of SP, in just a few months, Mayawati is likely to sweep elections when they are held. UP sends a massive 80 seats to the Lok Sabha.

6)      Biju Janata Dal in Orissa: The personal equation between Naveen Patnaik, Jayalalitha and Modiji is well known. They have taken stands together on various issues, most notable being the NCTC recently. Naveen has a protected vote in Orissa and will see that he will likely gain more importance in a third front led by Modi rather than being an also ran with Congress and BJP. Orissa sends 21 seats to the Lok Sabha.

7)      Shiv Sena and MNS in Maharashtra: SS and MNS are currently warring factions of the same family but perhaps Modi is best placed to bring them together for a higher, national cause. Bal Thackeray clearly has affinity for Hindutva as even originally he could have fashioned SS as a Maratha party and been just as popular without bringing Hindutva into the equation. But he didn’t, he did bring religion into it underlining his affinity and respect for his religion. MNS chief Raj Thackeray is IMHO the most capable, young leader at the state level today. His respect for Modiji is well known and had recently travelled to Gujarat to take inspiration from Modiji and mentions his visit in almost all his speeches. SS and MNS if they behave responsibly and divide seats between themselves have the potential to sweep Maharashtra elections. Maharashtra sends 48 seats to the Lok Sabha.

8)      Uma Bharti in MP and Parrikar in Goa: Uma Bharti is a fire brand leader who is a mass mobiliser. She may be disappointed by the Congress-lite nature of BJP today and will probably support Modiji. She specialises in Madhya Pradesh that sends 29 seats to the Lok Sabha. Manohar Parrikar is a great young leader for BJP and leads Goa (2 seats in Lok Sabha). He is also an RSS guy and will support Modi if push comes to shove.

The total of these seats plus 26 seats in Gujarat (that Modi will sweep) comes to about 311. A massive number. Even excluding MP and Karnataka that don’t have a strong leader or are burdened with corruption allegations, the number of seats is high at 254. Thus a Narendra Modi-led third front will be a formidable force even if it wins half of these seats. If it does win 160-180 seats, then who will Mamta-didi support? Who will the BJP (whats left of it) support? Who will small parties like NCP support? Where will BJP leaders in Bihar, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand and Uttarakhand swing? In my view, if Modiji is able to project a strong value and culture based leadership his third front can win over 300 seats.

In addition to just seats, Narendra Modi has the backing of a stalwart like Dr.Subramanian Swamy (the only other suitable PM candidate in the NDA, IMHO). While Dr. Swamy does not have a party mechanism in place now, his service to the country in the 2G case is well known and he may well win 15-20 seats from various parts of the country should be judiciously select seats and candidates, which I believe he will.

So based on my analysis, Modiji can divorce from the BJP and still manage to emerge as the PM candidate on his own. He is not a burden on the BJP, the current BJP is a burden on him!

But the objective of my analysis is not to encourage Modiji to break-up from the BJP. Personally I hope he stays with BJP and becomes their PM candidate and also rids BJP of false/compromised that it has and restore it to its original status of a “party with a difference”. The objective and to an extent conclusion of my blog is that BJP, even such state as it is in today, will have no other alternative than anointing Modiji as its PM candidate. It should know if it does otherwise, Modiji can just separate and become a PM on his own, its possible. After all in politics, I have given up expecting good sense and morality (even from the BJP), only blackmail works and Modiji has enough ammunition.

BJP: An opposition in absence

I don’t know how to start or end this blog, primarily I wonder if this should have a cynical overtone or one of hope. Its is very difficult when dealing with this subject solely because the monumental scale of political missteps by the BJP have lead even very favourable commentators like me wonder if its merely incompetence or is there something more sinister behind it. I have been a long time fan of the party…a voter as well, but I feel extremely betrayed with how the party has changed for the worse over the last 10-12 years. I will rant…and I rant for my sanity as much as for the good of the party and hence the country. I see a whole bunch of BJP voters on social media who censure anyone who criticise the BJP…these lot are your biggest enemies. They want to convert BJP into another Congress where something’s are above reproach. But you see the ruling family elite getting disappointed in elections despite no bad thing being allowed to be said about them. The other logic of these well-meaning fools is that BJP is better than the Congress so lets have them. I agree, but only partly. The way it is today, the BJP in my perception is EXACTLY like the Congress and while clearly less corrupt I am not confident that it will do the things that made BJP…’BJP’. So its possible I have been harsh, or maybe got some of my facts/ opinions wrong (though I don’t think so), but I hope the party and all its supporters understand the essence of this blaog/ rant and hope some good comes out of it.

On April 6, 2012, the BJP completed 32 years of existence (almost as old as me). It began its journey as a party with a difference, a true democratic and meritocratic setup in an era when Congress sycophancy was at its zenith. It had a strong ideological backbone with its cadre picked from the RSS, an organisation that is unparalleled in the world for its selfless service. It gave voice to the law abiding middle class hindu who had so far been (and arguably still remain) a milking cow for the government and nothing more. It was based on the need to create a true social renaissance based on equality rather than narrow parochial interests. The relatively austere lives of its leaders and its well educated cadre was a key positive going for the party. The party’s upswing came when it supported the Ram Janmabhoomi struggle and it was placed into powers moving from a mere 2 seats in the Lok Sabha to heading a ruling coalition for 5-6 years which saw a golden period in India’s economy and social outlook.

However, all this is now is as relevant as Gandhi and Patel are relevant to today’s Congress. The BJP today is no longer the same BJP we came to know, respect and support. Its is a deeply decaying institution run by leaders who seem, at best, unable to manage it. What remained BJP’s once almost refreshing politics-lite, ‘non-chaalu’ perception has now been stretched to point were people wonder, is it just that, or incompetence of something else?

Several questionable things have happened in the recent (and distant) past:

Subramanian Swamy’s allegation that the scion of India’s self appointed ‘first family’ was arrested at an American airport (Boston) for carrying US$160K in cash the origins of which he was not able to explain. While this was an ace chance for the BJP to finish of its main opposition, apparently its Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee (ABV) deputed his senior most officials (was it Brajesh Mishra?) to ensure the young man was let off and that the news was not reported by the media. If true, this is a serious charge.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMQ6ba8TXH8&feature=relmfu

While the ABV government was unquestionably the least corrupt and the most successful government in Indian history, the fact is that BJP did not pursue the Bofors case (again where the role of the ‘first family’ was suspect) for inexplicable reasons. ABV is currently incapacitated and the onus of defending this action (or lack of it) has fallen on its current leadership who is badly floundering at it. Anyone can watch Arun Jaitley’s recent interview with Karan Thapar and form their own judgement but it is indeed hard to believe that a government was unable to get to the bottom of a well investigated defence scam in over five years! Arun Jaitley tries to get away implying IMHO that CBI is an independent agency…but isn’t he accusing CBI of being exactly the opposite today? So was either incompetence or collusion or was an independent CBI dragging its feet and your government was unable or unwilling to get a move on? However, Arun Jaitley, articulate as he is, cant wish away reports that George Fernandes was ordered by ABV to not investigate the Gandhi family.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhCz0DL9e1Q

I only mention issues such as Uniform Civil Code, Ram Janmabhoomi movement and Article 370, all of which BJP claimed to be very close to their heart, that BJP made no move on during its rule in India. They claim that it was ideological differences with its coalition partners that prevented them from doing so. For now I give them the benefit of doubt though questions arise on what is the point of being in power if the very issues that put you in power are going to be thrown away for the sake of power?! How do you remain a party with a difference then? But let us leave that for now.

Each one of these instances cost us, and cost us dearly (in fact on a back of envelope gold parity calculation suggests that in current value the Rs64 crore Bofors scam is actually worth over Rs1,311 crore), there can be no two ways about that. Why ABV favoured the first family, if he did, was it out of goodness of his heart  or was there some quid pro quo, was there a secret arrangement between BJP and Congress (as Karan Thapar suggests in the interview), and what was the reason for the genesis of such an agreement. BJP cannot excuse these questions…these are not questions of legal wrangling or spin, these raise serious issue on the ‘character’ of some leaders. But BJP will perhaps want to say this is history…forget it…move on…fine…lets come closer in time then.

In early 2011, the BJP commissioned a task force comprised of the who’s who of the financial and intellectual elite of Indian nationalists. This group released a report 'Indian Black Money Abroad in Secret Banks and Tax Havens' which reportedly made certain suggestions about the Gandhi family’s wealth being parked abroad in an illegal manner. No doubt these reports distressed Soniaji and she complained to LK Advani to which Advani promptly apologised to her. http://www.rediff.com/news/report/text-of-advanis-regret-letter-to-sonia-gandhi/20110218.htm

Why did such a senior leader feel the need to apologise on this issue? If the report was malicious, the Congress had a horde of very senior lawyers who could have proven it false in a court of law, why did LKA feel the need to sap the morale of his own team that had no doubt worked hard on putting names to numbers and dislayed admirable courage in coming up with this publication? You opened yourself up for jibes from your own younger colleagues in BJP and even from people like Ambika Soni who are no where close to you in political stature. This act indeed rings alarm bells for ordinary citizens, doesn’t it?

While Narendra Modi is clearly the tallest leader in your party today, with a proven clean image and a vote winner, why has the BJP refused to let him campaign in states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh? Clearly the lame reasons given like Modiji being busy are obviously false, or has BJP failed to manage people’s perceptions again? Why cant BJP see the obvious gameplan of its ‘friends’ like SAD and JD(U) who want to increase their own vote base in their home states at the cost of national parties like yourself. While Rahul Gandhi clearly went wrong in the specifics, his larger plan of not depending on any regional satrap in winning elections makes a lot of sense. Instead of getting your vote winners to campaign why is BJP pandering to parochial interests? Why is there so much internal egos and jealousy that is sidelining the only true Prime Ministerial candidate that BJP has! Does Nitin Gadkari or LKA genuinely believe they can be serious contenders for the PM post? That is a joke. If the BJP has any political sense it will immediately anoint Modiji as its PM candidate and  work towards establishing him as a national figure.

The last 3 years has been a gold mine in terms of scams that any ‘true’ opposition party would simply relish, but which of these scams below, has the BJP been instrumental in bringing to light. When I ask ‘bringing to light’ I do not expect a reply like “if you see my supplementary to the concerned minister on the xyz date…” I mean a proper bringing to light, ie filing cases, making speeches to educate people, talking to journos, going on an all out offensive without fear:

The ineligibility of Sonia Gandhi to become PM - single handed Herculean effort by Dr. Subramanian Swamy

The CWG scam – brought out by Times Now and a couple other news channels/ CAG

The 2G scam – single handed Herculean effort by Dr. Subramanian Swamy corroborated by CAG

EVM scam (may have cost BJP’s re-election) – Dr. Subramanian Swamy

Assorted (yet serious) allegations against the Gandhi family and Chidambaram – Dr. Subramanian Swamy

The coal scam (USD400bn) – Chauthi Duniya and CAG

Pratibha Patil’s house – Social media followed by mainsteam media (MSM)

Abhishek Singhvi Sex Scandal – an anonymous internet user while you remained like MSM completely mum

Defence deal scandals – General VK Singh and social media/ MSM

Assorted temple land/ other land misappropriations and scams – MSM (if that)

The entire black money/ corruption/ Lokpal debate is headed by the Brahma, Vishnu, Mahesh of Anna Hazare, Baba Ramdev and Dr. Swamy. Where is BJP?

What is most shocking is that BJP is actually collaborating with the Congress on gagging social media. This raises an eyebrow to say the least on Nitin Gadkari’s intentions, afterall is the BJP in favour of gagging the very social media that has arguably benefited it the most?!

I am probably missing a few dozen more scandals here, but you get the gist. Can you tell your voters which one of these scandals was unearthed by BJP or which is the one cause where your president Nitin Gadkari can say, “yes this is our baby, we unearthed it or we are putting the government on the backfoot on this or we can be identified as the primary opposition in this scam”. You BJP are nowhere. You are either unwilling to unable to take on the Congress or you are unwilling or unable to manage peoples perceptions. Both cases are unforgivable in public life. Your biggest issue is the last gaffe on the selection of the next President of India…Congress did not have enough seats, but BJP could still not gather enough to put them on the backfoot. Your explanation cannot be that Congress bribed everyone, for if everyone is bikau then there is not need for a parliament at all. Why could you not convince other parties to vote for an eminently suitable candidate like Dr. Abdul Kalam? Did you not try, or did you try but your absolutely best efforts are not enough? I don’t know which scenario is scarier! I can go on and on listing BJP’s political mis-steps. It has gotten to the point where people on social media do not even consider you an opposition any more…worse they consider you to be in cahoots with the Congress, a some sort of a B-Team.

In every crisis (and BJP is in crisis) there is an opportunity. Clearly Nitin Gadkari, while may be a great person individually, is not inspiring leadership. It is the public’s perception that he has for his own narrow interests tried to side-line your most respected, effective and popular leader – Narendra Modi. If he claims the victory in recent state elections as his own then he is clearly confusing luck for talent. BJP has managed to win the non-Congress vote and has not managed to create a pro-BJP vote. This explains the party’s loss in Uttar Pradesh (once your bastion) where in your own estimation you lost because you could not prove yourself to be viable alternative to the BSP, in other words people didn’t think you could win, in more other words, people think you have miserably failed in creating your own constituency…you have not created a pro-BJP vote bank. BJP still has a great support base (myself included), it will vote for you but its not enough, you need to add numbers. BJP has great leaders at the state level, Narendra Modi, Raman Singh, Parrikar are some that come to mind. What BJP needs is a breath of fresh air at the top, perhaps 4-5 leaders at the top can move into advisory roles. Perhaps its also time to change Nitin Gadkari. When I watch TV debates with your leaders (you know which ones), they seem very satisfied with life…I miss the fire that I once saw with LKA and with Pramod Mahajan. It almost feels like the current lot is so scared of losing its chief opposition status that it lacks to guts to go for the jugular. If you are afraid of losing you will never win.

Why cant BJP invite leaders like Govindacharya back into its fold…he doesn’t seem to have any political ambitions but will provide the strong ideological backbone that BJP has lost. The party needs to go back to basics, go back to Hindutva, not necessarily hardline but atleast slightly right of centre. There is a huge bunch of people who don’t like the CONgress brand of politics, but are so disappointed in what BJP has become that they don’t vote. Go back to being the RSS-fuelled BJP and these people, people like me will vote you. Right now you are nothing but Congress-lite and if you continue to be run they way you are, you may not even win 50 seats on your own in Lok Sabha. Look at RJD…when parties lose their identity…they become non entities. If Nitin, LKA, Arun, Sushma, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Rudy and gang truly care for the BJP, they will know when to step out of the way and let true talent move up.